2012 College Football Preview

I'm not quite sure why the polls are always done in a Top 25 format, because in college football it's really only the top two that matter and only about 15 that are relevant. I guess its so guys like me can incite debates with blogs. 

Like South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier said in a preseason interview “The thing I like about baseball is every school in America has a chance to win the National Championship.” He cites Stony Brook in baseball and Butler in basketball, and I’ll add Fresno State to the list, who won the College World Series after being the last team into a field of 64 a few years ago.

“College football, we don’t do that,” Spurrier said. “If we had the six conference champs, the six BCS conferences, and two at large teams, almost every player could say ‘well if we really, really have a great year, we could win in all.’ That’s just a suggestion to try to get more in modern times.”

The four-team playoff gives two more teams a chance. Big deal.

My opinion, which doesn’t count, is that the first qualifier for the four-team playoff is that you are unbeaten. You win em all, and you have a chance. Of course the problem comes when, in the rare occasion like 2009 where we had five unbeatens, Boise, TCU, Alabama, Texas and Cincinnati. Its not perfection, its progress.

As is this column. And thank heaven we have football back, finally. This season I’ll be doing a weekly TD & Three, your seven best picks and strategy to win your pick em league.

For the preview this year we’re going to take the AP Top 25 and analyze them in a unique style that will project their record (Including title and bowl games) and their projected floor/ceiling ranking. Let the debate begin.

1.  USC – (14-0) – Ceiling 1 / Floor 5 – The Trojans are finally off the Reggie Bush naughty list and this is the opportunity QB Matt Barkley has been waiting for. Its BCS Title or bust this year. USC has 17 total starters returning from a 10-2 season and barring another slip up to the likes of Arizona State, USC controls their destiny, finally. The one game they have to be aware of, besides the obvious Oregon, is @Washington, which is a team that could see a ranking by year end.

2.  Alabama – (11-2) – Ceiling 3 / Floor 10 – Could Alabama win another title this year. Sure they could, anyone in the SEC could. Alabama returns QB AJ McCarron, yes, but the reality is The Tide were a mediocre 69th in passing offense last year. Their strength is defense and ball control and they lose 1500+ rushing yards and their second-leading receiver with the departure of Trent Richardson, not to mention nine regulars on defense. Their swing games are Michigan, @Arkansas, @Mizzou, @LSU , and I think they lose two of those.

3. LSU – (12-2) – Ceiling 2 / Floor 12 - I see LSU taking a step back. Although their lines are stout, lost is Tyrann Mathieu and his defensive production and special teams game changing. There will be title buzz for the first couple months as their season doesn’t really intensify until Oct 6 @Florida and that four-week stretch will test them.

4. Oklahoma (12-1) – Ceiling 1 / Floor 5 – Oklahoma shouldn’t lose more than one game and they better hope that one game is the BCS title, because if they stumble in the regular season, they risk a one-loss SEC team getting voted ahead of them. But I see Landry Jones sweeping his team through the regular season and the lack of a Big XII title game may benefit them, a la Ohio State a few years back. They return 17 starters from a team that was Top 50 in rushing, 31st in scoring D, 10^th in scoring and 5^th in passing. The Big XII is deep, but I don’t see Kansas State, Okie State or even West Virginia, not to mention an overrated Texas team, having the stones to better the Sooners.

5. Oregon (12-2) Ceiling 5 / Floor 8 – To me, it’s very clear how the Ducks season is going to go down. Their schedule is pretty weak, other than the inevitable track meet against Washington on Oct. 6. Otherwise its simple, they lose twice to USC and win their bowl game. Thus with two losses, they won’t crack the top 4, but won’t be any lower than 8.

6. Georgia (11-3) Ceiling 1/Floor 15 – Georgia is a complete wild card at the No. 6 spot. How lucky they got to be in the SEC and not play Alabama, Arkansas or LSU until the potential SEC title game, which is why I give them a No 1 ceiling. Their tests are @Mizzou, @South Carolina and Florida. They are the one SEC team that you could argue that even if they run the table, you would take an unbeaten Oklahoma over them.

7. Florida State (13-1) Ceiling 1 / Floor 10 – Here we go again with Florida State getting pre-season love. This year I think will be different. In years past I have been correctly critical of their preseason hype. This year I think they deserve it more. Unfortunately for the Seminoles, the ACC isn’t a strong enough conference for any team to withstand one regular season loss and still get into the BCS title. I think FSU loses a regular season game and all hopes are dashed.

8. Michigan (12-2) Ceiling 5/Floor 13 – I applaud Michigan for having the stripes to schedule Alabama right out of the gate and I am in the minority thinking they might actually win that game. However Michigan is still prone to let down (see Iowa 2011). I think they win the Big Ten but drop one to either Michigan State, @Nebraska or @Ohio State.

9. South Carolina – (9-4) Ceiling 10/Floor Unranked – Despite Spurrier’s common sense approach to the playoff system, his team No. 9 South Carolina is way over rated. With Georgia, @LSU, @Florida back-to-back-to-back then Arkansas and @Clemson, I’m hard pressed to see how the Cocks win double digits.

10. Arkansas – (11-2) Ceiling 4 / Floor 16 – Returning QB Tyler Wilson to an offense that was 13^th in passing and 15^th in scoring is a step in the right direction for the Hogs. They get both Alabama and LSU at home but they probably lose at least one of those games, and if they do, they don’t make the SEC championship, considering the three are in the same division. They win them both then they are in the BCS title game vs. USC.

11. West Virginia – (11-2) Ceiling 7 / Floor 23 – Welcome to the Big XII, West Virginia! Their transition to the new conference adds depth to a conference sans title game. On the surface WVU plays five teams in the preseason Top 25. I don’t expect three of those teams to be ranked by year end. With the passing proficiency the Mountaineers have, they should fit right in, but that will also be a challenge for a defense that was 61^st last year. I might be more optimistic than I should be about these guys.

12.Wisconsin – (9-4) Ceiling 15 / Floor 25 – Wisconsin returns Heisman hopeful Monte Ball, but little else. Just 10 starters returning from a team that was two hail Mary’s from a perfect regular season, the Badgers missed their chance last season. They will make the conference championship game by default (Ohio State and Penn State ineligible) but they won’t win. Either Nebraska or Michigan will beat them there. Reputation alone has them No. 12.

13. Michigan State – (8-5) Ceiling 20 / Floor Unranked – Unranked is most likely for the Spartans this year. The defense is the specialty of this team, but last year’s 11-3 was a bit of luck. Three point wins over Georgia and Ohio State and a miracle against Wisconsin or this team is 7-6 last year, and this year’s squad isn’t as good offensively. Schedule includes Boise, Notre Dame and OSU then @Michigan, @Wisconsin, Nebraska all in a row.

14. Clemson – (11-2) Ceiling 5 / Floor 17 – This is perhaps a bit low for Clemson. We will see how they rebound from the Orange Bowl thumping from West Virginia, but if Clemson comes out and stomps Auburn and carries momentum to Florida State they could easily win the ACC. But alas, I think FSU is too good this year. Tajh Boyd is the key.

15. Texas – (8-5) Ceiling 22 / Floor Unranked – This is a joke. Texas isn’t good. They lost 3 of 4 to close the regular season last year and this year they could lose three straight in late September/early October and then likely @KSU to close. McCoy to Shipley isn’t Colt to Jordan … if only.

16. Virginia Tech - (11-3) Ceiling 8 / Floor 16 – The ACC is top loaded. Clemson, FSU, Va Tech 

and everyone else. Va Tech may not be a premier team, but they may be unbeaten until the Oct 20 match-up at Clemson and by then may be a top 10 team. Two of their projected three losses could be to Florida State.

17.  Nebraska – (10-3) – Ceiling 10 / Floor 22 – The Huskers could be the spoiler of the Big Ten. They could get live up to the projection some have of a Fiesta Bowl bid. I’m a bit more skeptical. Until Nebraska proves it won’t overlook games like Northwestern last year, and they can win on the road, I’ll temper. Nebraska is probably the third best team in the conference, but the stretch of five games, three on the road in the heart of the season will be a true test. The offense if pretty much intact. The defense is assumed to be collectively better, and the Big Ten is down this year in my opinion. They have to beat Michigan at home to play for a title.

18.  Ohio State – (11-1) – Ceiling 5 / Floor 20 – If they were eligible, I would have the Buckeyes winning the Big Ten hands down. Urban Meyer will light Columbus on fire this year and if Braxton Miller can mature into his role at QB, he could be Terrelle Pryor reincarnate (skills-wise). They get both Michigan and Nebraska at home, which I believe to be their toughest two games.

19. Oklahoma State – (8-5) – Ceiling 20 / Floor Unranked – The loss to Iowa State will haunt the Cowboys until they get back to the top of the mountain. The losses of Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon will haunt them badly this year. Going from a 28 year-old QB to a trufrosh 18 year-old will come with adjustment and that adjustment feels like four games.

20. TCU – (9-4) – Ceiling 20 / Floor Unranked – TCU could creep into the top 15, if not higher as their schedule doesn’t get difficult until late October. I could see them starting 7-0 or 6-1 but they finish with five straight pre-season Top 25 teams.

21.  Stanford – (10-3) Ceiling 12 / Floor 25 – They don’t get much prep for USC in the first couple games against San Jose and Duke and the USC loss will look worse than it actually is for this team. Stanford returns the core of a top 20 rushing game and will be fine for most games in the Pac 12.

22. Kansas State – (10-3) Ceiling 14 / Floor Unranked – Kansas State is an interesting wrinkle in the Big XII. Their only three losses last year came against teams that finished in the top 10. However seven of their wins were by seven points or less. Colin Klein is a force many teams won’t be able to deal with.

23.  Florida – (8-5) Ceiling 24 / Floor unranked – Florida shouldn’t be ranked, but because they are going into the year ranked, they probably will be until they play LSU on Oct 6. They might go 1-4 over those next five and the season will be lost.

24.  Boise State – (11-2) Ceiling 10 / Floor 20 – If Boise loses to Michigan State (which I don’t think they will), they won’t be ranked again until the pollsters start looking for one-loss teams in October. Do I think Boise is a top 10 team? Not this year. But I think Chris Petersen is a good enough coach to get the team past a weak schedule again.

25. Louisville – (11-3) – Ceiling 20 / Floor Unranked. Are we discussing the Big East this year? No? Ok.

In case you haven't figured out by now, I am picking USC to beat Oklahoma in the BCS Championship this year. Yes, LSU, Alabama and Georgia have a shot, but Georgia  mostly due to their easier road. Don’t forget to check back weekly for TD & Three, your weekly picks breakdown and thank me later!

View from the HD: College Football V.2011 - Week 8

Let me first apologize for my absence last two weeks. Had something very important to accomplish at work. Thanks to my readers for pressing me to write again this week.

I was really upset to see two unbeatens fall last week. I'm a big proponent of a playoff and the chaos that six or more unbeaten teams would cause would really provide a great new argument. But alas, we're down to eight now, a couple of which play each other. But can you imagine the uproar if unbeaten Clemson and Stanford don't get a title shot, let alone Boise.

This is the week we start to see what garbage the BCS rankings are really. I don't have much issue with the top three, which mirrors mine. Where I start to see holes is Boise at No. 4. You all know I love Boise, but Clemson's resume with back-to-back-to-back wins over Auburn, Florida State and Va Tech should speak louder than Boise's one notable win over Georgia. True that we now know FSU was, as I said week 2, overrated. So Clemson, should be four, Boise five. Its a nit pick.
Stanford had played nobody but sixth is fine. Kansas State is finally getting some love and really should be ahead of Oregon (for now, more on them later). After all they did beat the Texas Tech team that just ruined the Sooner's season.
Things get very strange after that. Oklahoma loses to Tech, yet remain ranked above Arkansas (who's only loss is to Alabama), above Michigan State (who just beat Wisconsin), and above Va Tech (who's only loss is to Clemson).
Wisconsin loses on a last second bomb to a very good Sparty squad and falls from No. 4 to No. 15 BEHIND a Nebraska team that they slaughtered and a South Carolina team who lost to Auburn and has won three other games against lesser opponents by three points or less.
Last comment and its about undefeated Houston. The only difference between Houston's schedule and Boise State's schedule is basically Georgia (unless you consider Boise's resume over last five years, in which case proves the flaws of the BCS in a vacuum). Either Houston should be higher or Boise should be lower. Did you see Case Keenum last night? In just over three quarters he threw for 534 yards and NINE touchdowns ... in a driving rain.

That being said, here's my Top 10 this week:
1. LSU - Two-thirds of the way through their regular season and they have yet to be tested. Outside of a 6-3 halftime score against Mississippi State they have impressively blown everyone else away. Their season begins or ends next week against Alabama.
2. Alabama - Like LSU, they have yet to really find relevant competition. The one thing Alabama has to worry about against LSU is that they start slow sometimes. Tied at half against Tennessee, trailed Florida early and failed to ever really put Penn State away.
3. Oklahoma State- The Cowboys are still being underestimated. Only a seven-point fav at Mizzou and killed that number, winning by 21. They host Baylor this week, which should really teach us something about their defense. Vegas says 80 points and if it goes under its because Baylor was held under 30 points.
4. Clemson - Great story. From unranked to a shot at the title. Tough test against the funky Georgia Tech offense this week, but Georgia Tech is sputtering lately. In it's last three games the Ramblin Wreck has been a wreck only scoring 16.33 points per. Not enough to stop Tajh.0.
5. Boise State - After laying waste to Fresno on national TV a couple weeks ago, they were sloppy against Air Force and their ironic iconic ground attack. They might however hang 100 on UNLV, even if Kellen Moore doesn't play the 2nd half.
6. Stanford - Moves up because of the Oklahoma and Wisconsin losses. They are however 2nd in overall points for and 4th in points against, which has made them a home-gamer darling. I think they have covered every week so far. A bit of a test at USC this week.
7. Kansas State - Wins in consecutive games over Miami, Baylor, Missouri and Texas Tech. Mini-feature after Top 10.
8. Oregon - Been humming along since the loss to LSU. The defense is either better than people think or the Pac-12 offenses really do suck. Date with Stanford looms big time, but I think Oregon is relegated to spoiler at this point.
9. Michigan State - Very gritty win over Wisconsin, with a little luck thrown in as well. The defense and special teams were amazing for the middle 40 minutes of the game. Watch out for the let down at Nebraska this week, though.
10. Wisconsin - Their season may have been ruined last week as I don't think enough obstacles can be over come by year end. They may have a chance for redemption in the Big Ten title game, but now they know how it feels to be Ohio State last year.

The old ball coach has still got the magic. And no, I'm not talking Steve Spurrier. This time, we're talking Bill Snyder of Kansas State. Fresh off his 72nd birthday Snyder is leading Kansas State back to the prominence they has in his previous tenure. The Wildcats are 7-0, battle-tested and hungry to prove themselves as a top tier team. Collin Klein is a machine that hasn't been stopped yet. Against Baylor, he out-Griffin'ed Griffin running for 113 yards and a fourth-quarter touchdown that put the Cats in position to just need a field goal the next drive to win. Klein has thrown for nearly 1000 yards and eight touchdowns, but has run for almost 700 yards and 14 scores. And the defense isn't bad either. Ranked 23rd overall in points against, they held both Texas Tech and Baylor to 35 points or less. The 35 points from Baylor sounds like a lot until you figure their previous season low was 48 against SF Austin, when they shut it down late. And the 34 allowed against Tech is impressive given the vaunted Oklahoma defense allowed 41.
Put this in perspective: If Kansas State runs the table, they will have beaten six, maybe seven teams ranked in the Top 25 this season. If they can beat Oklahoma and Oklahoma Stat in back to back games, they could find themselves No. 2 in the BCS come November 6. The next four games are all against BCS Top 25 teams, so the season is just getting started for Kansas State. Its a real shame Oklahoma lost last week or GameDay would be at the Little Apple this week.

For the Homers: Michigan State at Nebraska preview - Nebraska grew up as a team and may have entered a new era in the comeback win over Ohio State. Last year's Huskers, hell the last six Husker teams, would not have won that game. They thoroughly dismantled Minnesota in the first half and shut it down. The true test of whether they are back or not comes now. Michigan State is coming off a very emotional win over Wisconsin. The difference in the game was their special teams. That blocked punt touchdown changed the whole game and Wisconsin didn't get traction back until it was too late. The Huskers offensive special teams is better than the Spartans with Abdullah returning kicks. However its when Nebraska is kicking or punting that the Spartans are superior. Sparty may have an emotional let down after last week and coming into Lincoln. This game is now bigger for Nebraska than the Wisconsin game was because if the Huskers fail to win this one, all their goals to start the season became all but unattainable. William Gholston coming back for Michigan State makes it harder for Burkhead and unless Quincy Enunwa can become Nick Toon and fast, the Husker pass game might have trouble hauling in the rainbow heaves of Martinez. Every match up points to Michigan State, yet Nebraska is favored. Early kickoff may mean a long hangover for Husker nation. This is a barometer game for Husker Nation.

Predictions
Locks:
Starting Fresh This week:
1. Clemson over Georgia Tech - The Jackets are reeling. After a perfect start they have dropped two disappointing games against Virginia and Miami. This is not the game is looked like two weeks ago and Clemson is not the team you get back on track against. Clemson by 14.
2. Texas A&M over Mizzou - The Tigers are not the team anyone thought they would be and the A&M defense will be the hardest they have faced so far. A&M is looking for a statement game. This is it.
3.Iowa over Minnesota - I usually don't like double digit road favorites, but Minnesota has been gold to pick against. The Hawkeyes got correct against Indiana and the Gophers rank 109th or worse in passing, points for and points against.
***Bonus over*** Oklahoma State v. Baylor is tempting, even at 79, but realize that means we gotta get 21 per quarter in this one. W could also consider SMU at Tulsa. But for overs gold, look for gold helmets ... Notre Dame v. Navy. When ND played a similar type of offense in Air Force, the two combined for 92 points. Navy and AF combined for 69. Navy is top 40 in points for, 83rd in points against.

Upset Alerts:
1. Undefeated Kansas State is a 14 point dog at home against a down Oklahoma team. I'm not coming out and saying KSU wins, but last time they were a double-digit home dog was Baylor and they won that one outright.
2. Coming off a big win over West Virginia, Syracuse has an extra day and are getting points heading into Louisville, who is 114th in points for, averaging just over 16 a game. There is no explanation other than home field that Lou is favored.
3.Oregon State got off to a rocky start, but has put up 36 points a game the last three. Utah has struggled against aggressive passing teams, Washington and Arizona State.

View from the HD: College Football V.2011 - Week 5

Week five in college football was a bit disappointing. Both match-ups of Top 15 caliber teams were blowouts which is starting to show a major gap in the teams that actually have a chance to win the title. I think we're down to just six teams that legitimately have a shot at the BCS crown, and unfortunately Boise State isn't one of them, again.
But this week is crow eatin' time. I was proven wrong about so many things it's ridiculous. I asked for it on the Husker Rivals page too. I asked to be proven wrong and spouted something about black jerseys that was great for hits (broke a record for readers last week). This week will be laced with battle rants that I was just plain wrong about. And no, crow does not taste like chicken ... more like humility.
Crow on...
We learned that Nebraska is who they have been for each year under Bo. A good team that underwhelms in big situations. This was their chance to prove they were back. To exert themselves into the Big Ten and make a statement. The statement is whimpered loud and clear. They aren't ready to win a championship. The talent gap between Taylor Martinez (who is now being dubbed T-ragic, not T-magic) and Wisconsin's Russell Wilson is beyond evident. But it doesn't stop there. This battle was won on the scrimmage. Wisconsin's big nasties are just flat better right now, on both sides. Their secondary is better, their receivers are better, and as gritty as Rex Burkhead is, Montee Ball is better.
Keep in mind, however, just how young a team Nebraska fields. Martinez, sophomore. Abdullah, freshman. Enunwa, soph. Turner, freshman. The offensive line is littered with underclassmen and lacking in cohesion. The Huskers just aren't elite yet. They have the promise, but they haven't had the time. One last thought ... as talented as Martinez is, he better learn to keep possession of the ball, running or throwing. People are starting to question if the juice is worth the way he squeezes the ball out of his own hands.
Speaking of orange juice, Florida has it's own issues. They came out, similar to Nebraska, and took a lead at Alabama early on a John Brantley bomb. But Alabama ran all over the Gators as Trent Richardson rushed for over 180-yards. Brantley, and the Gators hopes of a home win, we're knocked out in the second quarter. On an up-note, Florida now has to play No. 1 LSU in Baton Rouge. Lucky them.

Enough ramble, Top 10 time.
1. LSU - Nice scrimmage against Kentucky last week. Florida at home sounds tough. But with the Gators likely playing a freshman quarterback, is no contest either.
2. Alabama - Stemmed an early tide against Florida. Three no-brainers leading up to LSU.
3. Oklahoma State- Off last week. Kansas coming, as is domination of the Jayhawks.
4. Oklahoma - Of course they beat Ball State by 56. Red River next up. Maybe I'll continue to be wrong about Texas and they'll give Oklahoma a game, but I doubt it.
5. Boise State - I said last week, all they do is win by 20, and that's exactly what they did against Nevada. About the only thing I got right last week. But Boise is losing luster, just like it does every October when the big boys play big boy games. More on Boise next week.
6. Wisconsin- Very impressive and thorough beating of Nebraska. So why not rank them above Boise? I think Boise would do the same to Nebraska at this point.
7. Clemson - Their resume is actually better, from a ranking standpoint, than most Top 10 teams. And by my normal method, I should have them third or fourth. Shutting Va Tech down to three points hasn't been done since 2006. But the Hokies, Auburn and Florida State are tier-two or three programs within the Top 25. Could they really beat those above them?
8. Stanford- The Boise State of the Pac 12. They just have yet to play anyone and won't until the de-facto conference title game against Oregon. Good thing for them the Pac 12 is a BCS conference, or they would be stuck with no shot at a title, too.
9. Georgia Tech - Thank you for the humble pie. I predicted a loss at NC State. Yeah the final score looked close, at 45-35, but GT had a 42-14 lead in the fourth quarter after a flurry of three scores in three minutes. They average almost 600 yards of total offense and that triple option run game gets almost 400 per. They hang 52 on everyone. The Clemson game later this month will be a bonus BCS game nobody saw coming.
10. Arkansas - I really wish Baylor would have beaten Kansas State. I had this spot all warmed up for them. The Razorbacks are the best one-loss team out there and their loss was to No. 2. Arkansas showed  a lot of tenacity in the comeback over A&M.

Not quite ready to give Michigan, Texas or Kansas State Top 10 love yet. They all three have brutal conference schedules to navigate.

Crow eating time! I was wrong about Texas. Maybe with Gilbert Grape out of their way, they will be good again. The Big XII really slapped me in the face all around. I gave love to Iowa State (lost), Baylor (lost), A&M (lost) and said Texas was still garbage (won big). I thought Wisconsin would be softened by their week schedule so far. Nope, tough as as bad meat. Gave props to Illinois, who had to rally late to clip a Northwestern team that isn't great. Pitt laid waste to South Florida, who I claimed had first rights to the conference. So, ok here it is ... I was wrong.

Games of the week:

Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee State: Just kidding ...
Oklahoma @ Texas: Obviously the biggest game of the week. Landry Jones is trying to prove he's not just a dark horse Heisman guy. The Sooners have more talent and Texas is a bit overrated. However this is the game that decides the Big XII and has for a number of years been a game that decides who plays in the BCS game. Both teams come in with a lot of momentum and a lot to prove. Let's just hope for viewer's sake their not the blowouts last week's two big games were.

Boise St. @ Fresno St. : You might skip past this one thinking its going to be another Boise walkthrough, but hold on. Boise has zombied through every game since the Georgia opener. Kellen Moore is likely the best pure passing QB in the country, but they are easy to set aside. Fresno's own QB Derek Carr in no slouch, however. I've seen first had how effective he can be on the roll out pass. This game gets national attention played on a Friday night and Fresno will give them hell.

So many more games had the potential to be marquee this week, if not for some losses already: Iowa State @ Baylor, Ohio State @ Nebraska, Auburn @ Arkansas, etc. So lets do this. Ill list the match-up, you tell me who has the better record (without going to ESPN.com or Yahoo! Sports!). Answers at the end.

-Texas A&M @Texas Tech
-TCU @ San Diego State
-Georgia @ Tennessee
-Cal @ Oregon
- Florida State @ Wake Forest
-Washington State @ UCLA

We'll do Conference Breakdowns next week as there are some big games this week.

Predictions

Locks: Three of four last week, not bad. I should have given you all Michigan over Minnesota instead of Northern Illinois on the road at Central Michigan, who won the game outright and blew my lock pick away. More crow.
This week: 
1. Give us Stanford at home again against Pac 12 newby Colorado, who is 1-4. Get your night right!
2. Georgia Tech over Maryland. If Temple can beat Maryland by 31 in Maryland, what's G-Tech going to do to them?
3. Baylor to cream Iowa State. The Cyclone inspiration bubble popped last week, and so did Baylor's perfect record. Baylor is mad, at home and RG3 may go 28-33 for 312 yards and five touchdowns. Just tossing it out there.
***Bonus over*** Had a lot of success with Kansas and overs, so lets stay comfy. Oklahoma State = fantastic offense, ok defense. Kansas = Bad defense, capable offense. This one gets away from the Jayhawks early and a bunch of late third and early fourth quarter garbage TD's send this one over.
Upset Alerts: I should know, by my day job, that past performance does not ensure future gains. I forgot this with my upsets last week. Yeah Utah State nearly made me a genius, but Iowa State and NC State got smoked. Try, try again.
1. Iowa is a dog at Penn State. Could be a trap, but common sense says Iowa.
2. Wake Forest covers Florida State and maybe win outright. Double digit home dog, Seminoles reeling, let down coming.
3. Kansas State is a home dog against Mizzou. If the KSU can stay up from the Baylor win, they'll win this battle of the Cats.
Answers to Better record:
-Texas Tech is still undefeated at 4-0. A&M is 2-2.
-TCU is 3-2 while San Diego State is 3-1 with a loss to Michigan.
-Tennessee is 3-1, which shocked me. Go Rocky Top. Georgia 3-2
-Cal and Oregon: Trick question, both are 3-1. Cal's first loss came last week at Washington.
-Wake Forest is a quiet 3-1 while Florida State is a very public 2-2.
-Washington State is 3-1. No really, they are. UCLA is 2-3 and floundering.

View from the HD: College Football V.2011 - Week 4

You know what makes college football different for me? I would rather watch literally any college football game rather than ESPN's College Game Day. By contrast, I like the NFL, but I'm equally or more excited to watch the fantasy football show or NFL Countdown then the NFL games themselves. I'm not sure why its like that for me, but I can't be the only one. 
Let's get crackin!
I was so ready to crucify Oklahoma State at halftime of their game against Texas A&M. Every year the Cowboys come in firing hot and in their first big game test to prove legitimacy they seem to let it slip. Not this time. State showed character coming from 17 down to win the game and they may actually have a decent defense as they only gave up seven second-half points (nobody counts that safety). Oklahoma State is poised for a really nice year and they get Baylor and Oklahoma at home. I'm now a believer.

Week four and one of the polls finally got it right as the AP has LSU No. 1. USA Today still has them at No. 2.
So my Top 10 looks like this:  
1. LSU - No other unbeaten team in college football has beaten two teams in this week's Top 25, one on the road. They hung 40+ on both Oregon and West Virgina. Enough said.
2. Alabama - The Tide defense has only allowed 32 points in four games. Just eight points per game. Stout!
3. Oklahoma State- Too high? Just ask Nebraska how easy it is to win AT A&M, when you're playing 11 on 12. See Oklahoma's ranking for further justification.
4. Boise State - All they do is win by 20 every week.  
5. Oklahoma - Florida State losing to Clemson takes a bit of cred from the Sooners. They will have plenty of chances to earn it back with Texas, A&M, Baylor and OKSt. still on the schedule.
6. Stanford- Another team known for offense whose defense is better than you think. Just 27 points allowed, yet against three weaker teams. 
7. Wisconsin- Have blown out four cupcakes by a combined 194-34. Week four against South Dakota though? Unfair. 
8. Nebraska - Moves up by sheer attrition. Defense may be improving with the return of some walking wounded. True test is this week at Wisconsin.
9. South Carolina  - They have been winning close games but they won't get tested again until November. By then, they will be 8-0 and a solid Top 10 team.
10. Clemson - Clemson? Yeah, they snapped the longest winning streak in football with the win against Auburn and followed that up by hanging 35 on Florida State, something Oklahoma couldn't do. No big deal.

Teams on Top 25 radar: Illinois (I know some polls have them in, but I'm not quite ready to give them that yet), Kansas State (play Baylor this week), Houston, Auburn, Iowa, Washington. Michigan State.

Games of the week: 
Nebraska @ Wisconsin - Welcome to the Big Ten and Camp Randall, Huskers. Nebraska is 0-8 in their last eight as a 10+ point dog. Nebraska's defensive philosophy is bend don't break, but Badger QB Russell Wilson is breaking everyone. Rumors of the black uniforms coming out to play for the Huskers, and fans will rock black but will the Blackshirts?
Clemson @ Virginia Tech - What looked like a ho-hum ACC game a month ago has BCS implications now. Clemson QB Tahj Boyd is 66% passing, 13 TDs and two picks. Ridiculous numbers, especially for a sophomore. Virginia Tech has a solid run game and usually wins the intangible battle.
Alabama @ Florida - This is the first in a long line of major SEC match-ups this year. This week we get to see if Florida is a pretender. The Gators have rolled on without much opposition but Alabama is battle tested and road tested already traveling to Penn State.

Random Thoughts
-Why on God's green earth is Texas ranked? Ohhh you beat BYU by a point and you break out against a bottom 10 UCLA team. Let's get real. Reputation has carried them to their current ranking, but pay no mind to that and let me be the one who said "I told you so" when they finish with four losses.
-Don't look now, but Iowa State in undefeated. But they have a month from hell coming up. Texas, at Baylor, at Mizzou, A&M at home. If they go 2-2 over next four, give them some love.
-Who would have thought with all the fantastic games last weekend, we would still be talking about Toledo v. Syracuse. You stand under the pole, parallel with the line to rule a kick in our out, and you screw that up? No wonder the Big East is in trouble. Good win, Toledo.
- Kudos to Wisconsin for scheduling a week four game against South Dakota. That's something you do in week one, not a softie right before Nebraska. The Coyotes, however would like to thank you for showing some discretion by not running up 70+ points like you did three times last year (83 against Indiana).
- Notre Dame v. Pitt was unwatchable. Just sayin.
- Congrats to Minnesota for dropping a game to a I-AA team for the second straight year after surviving a three-point win over South Dakota State in 2009. They aren't the only ones, though. UNLV lost at home by 25 to Southern Utah.
-Sick stat of the week: Baylor QB RG3 has more touchdown passes (13) than incompletions (12).
-Its the verge of UNO hockey season already? Holy crap!

Conference Breakdown
The Big XII is 28-4 with five teams in the top 17 (if you believe in Texas), and seven unbeatens. No other conference has more than four. Two of those losses are intra-conference already, which means a 26-2 non-conference. You can't argue with that. They are heading into conference season and the cream will rise, but the conference has at least two legit national championship contenders.

The SEC actually only has five teams in the Top 25 right now entering the meat of conference play. The SEC has some signature wins but also a couple of unfortunate losses. They are two-team top heavy, but really bad at the bottom. I wouldn't say its a down year because LSU and Alabama are in the conversation until December, but their bottom looks a lot like the bottom of the Big Ten.

The BigTen championship is this weekend. Pay no mind to whatever game in late December, unless its a rematch. The winner of the Wisconsin v. Nebraska match has the inside track to a conference crown. Illinois has been the story of the league so far, however. Allowing only 13 points a game and a win over Arizona State has given them some attention. Can they sustain? 

South Florida is carrying the flag for the Big East and is trying to earn eight wins for the sixth season in a row. Not bad for a "who's that" program before this streak. West Virginia stands in their way in the last game of the season, but look for the Bulls to keep charging forward. I don't think they are a Top 10 team but they may get there if they survive this upcoming stretch of four of their next five on the road.

Do I really have to talk about the Pac-12 the week? Stanford and Oregon are head and feathers above the rest and its not just Luck. Nice try making a name for yourself Washington and Arizona State. Oh and good pick up by adding Colorado. 

Predictions
Locks: 
1. West Virginia coming off an undressing against LSU will bounce back huge and run through Bowling Green like tissue paper. Maybe by 30. 
2.Northern Illinois over Central Michigan. The Chips may be in the Bottom 10 in football. In their last 10 quarters Central Michigan has been outscored 100-21. The only team NIU didn't score 40 on was Wisconsin.
3. Are the football god's really giving us Stanford at home against a reeling UCLA team? Thank you!
*4. Bonus over - Kansas and Texas Tech - I know a couple weeks ago I picked KU and the Georgia Tech over and that was too easy. Back to KU and Tech. Combined averaging 42.5 a game. Kansas allowing 40+ a game and Tech hasn't played anyone with any offense.
Upset Alerts: I was a week early on calling a Temple win over a BCS school. Huge win over Maryland. Nice job, boys.
1. Intra-state game for my first upset: Utah State to beat BYU. The Aggies hung tough with Auburn and BYU's QB looked lost at times against Central Florida. If USU jumps out early, hard for the Cougs to recover.
2. Watch out this week, Georgia Tech. You lost six games last year, one of them to North Carolina State. The Jackets travel this year.
3.Iowa State at home over Texas. Cyclones did it last year. Both teams are 3-0 and looking to make a statement. Paul Rhodes gets players jacked up for games like nobody else. The guy is genuine and you want to follow him to battle. A win may get them a ranking.

View from the HD: College Football V.2011 - Week 1

The heavens opened up and angels rejoiced on Thursday as the summer doldrums ended and life began anew with the kickoff of college football. I finally bought an HDTV for this reason.
Now, down to business. Top 10, Observations, Conference breakdowns and Week 2 predictions all found below.

Allow me to go on record as saying I hate preseason rankings. Ranking teams on last season's performance in anticipation and potential is fundamentally flawed logic. For example, without preseason polls, Notre Dame is Purdue. After last week, who honestly thinks the Domers are a Top 25 team? Forget nostalgia and lets call a 7-of spades a 7-of spades. Not a real powerful piece of the puzzle, but necessary to complete the deck.

Then again, when in Rome ... so here's what my Top 10 would look like.
1. LSU - Dominated a team that is nearly the same team that went to the title game last year.
2. Oklahoma - They are just flat out good.
3.  Boise St. - Hate on me if you want, but Boise has played "neutral site" games to open the last two seasons and won, this time against an SEC team.
4. Alabama - Second best in the the best conference
5. Stanford - Luck for Heisman!
6. Nebraska - If Taylor stays healthy, only Wisconsin can stop them.
7. Texas A&M - Defense is good, offense is better than expected so far.
8. Wisconsin - Could have hung 80 on UNLV. Defense a bit suspect against the tricky pistol.
9.  Oklahoma State - They are going to play a lot of 56-27 games, but they are going to win them.
10. Virginia Tech - Slaughtered to 1-AA darling Appalachian State. May rise to the top out of sheer attrition and a weak ACC.

What about Florida State? If they beat Oklahoma, I'll put them in the Top 5, until then, they are Notre Dame to me.

Teams on Top 25 radar: Baylor, Maryland, Northwestern, Iowa, Michigan, Houston.

Observing the Obvious

-My wife is among millions of women who do not embrace the start of football season. Count Mother Nature in with that group. Storms ravished the college scene this weekend causing two games to be shortened and a couple more to be delayed, with the Notre Dame game lasting an agonizing six hours. She's a vicious mistress ... Mother Nature, not my wife.

-Notre Dame is overrated. Seriously who do they pay to get ranked each year ? The Irish have been irrelevant for years.

-Poor Tulsa. Their September schedule is something no team would survive. Open with Oklahoma, at Tulane, then Oklahoma State and Boise State. Three Top 10s to start. Ouch. Good news is Conference USA is so weak they could still easily get bowl eligible.

-Boise State is no joke. They come better prepared out of the gate than any other team. Wins over Va Tech and Georgia in the last two opening weeks, both games held in the opponents back yard. Their resume in the last five years now includes a 61-5 record with two wins over Oregon and Oregon State, and wins over TCU, Va Tech, Georgia, Utah and Oklahoma. Time for respect.

- I know I'm jumping ahead a week, but Nebraska will lay waste to Washington for three reasons: 1.The Husker offense should have its legs by then. 2.Washington is nothing without Jake Locker and proved that by nearly losing to Eastern Washington. Their QB threw for just 102 yards. They did win the turnover battle 4-0 a bigger spread than the final score, but couldn't take advantage. 3.Revenge! It will be so sweet.

Conference Break Down

The Pac 12 is soft. There is no sugar coating. The only legit team is Stanford who will run away with the title. Oregon has lost to SEC teams back-to-back in their only shots to prove themselves. USC can't overcome itself and barely overcame a watered-down Minnesota team (pun intended), Washington barely beat Eastern Washington, Hawaii pounded Colorado (the WAC's only win on the week) and Oregon State lost to Sacramento State, who I didn't even know had a team.

The SEC is typically known as a defensive stalwart, but don't expect a ton of 20-10 games this year. The conference put up an average of over 40 points per game, and that includes two teams that put up less than 15 points. Three teams put up 50+.

Say what you want abut the much maligned Big XII, but the 10-team league escaped week one undefeated. That being said, this includes wins over overrated TCU, Eastern Kentucky, Northern Iowa and Miami-OH by a combined 17 points. The gap from top to bottom is immense, and Texas fits somewhere in the middle, despite their off-season entitlement complex.

The Big Ten started out the season strong going 10-2. The schedule however was weak. Northwestern (win) and Minnesota (loss) were the only two teams to play BCS-caliber opponents. Michigan State and Illinois were underwhelming and Indiana lost to Ball State. But the conference is top heavy and has two or three teams that have a shot at the BCS if they don't get in each other's way.

The other undefeated conference in week one was the Big East. The flagship win was South Florida at Notre Dame but few people think a true contender will arise this year. West Virginia should have no problem representing in the BCS this year.

Predictions - My favorite part of the blog
High Score for the week: Last week's winning team was Virginia Tech with 66.
This week's prediction: Wisconsin, at home against Oregon State. Florida State and Stanford also both candidates.
Locks:
1. Oklahoma State vs. Arizona over. Nick Foles will carve a defense already made of Swiss and the Cowboy offense is good for 45 points at minimum.
2. Wisconsin over Oregon State - and I don't care if the spread is 100.
3. Houston over North Texas. Keenum to Carrier is a Top 5 battery in college football.
Upset Alerts
1. Central Michigan over Kentucky. Scoring 14 points against a team that has won 4 games in three 1-A seasons? Not good enough Wildcats.
2. Georgia over South Carolina. Georgia got much better prep for week two than the Cocks did.
3. More - Michigan over ND, Utah over USC, Middle Tenn covers Georgia Tech.