2012 College Football Preview

I'm not quite sure why the polls are always done in a Top 25 format, because in college football it's really only the top two that matter and only about 15 that are relevant. I guess its so guys like me can incite debates with blogs. 

Like South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier said in a preseason interview “The thing I like about baseball is every school in America has a chance to win the National Championship.” He cites Stony Brook in baseball and Butler in basketball, and I’ll add Fresno State to the list, who won the College World Series after being the last team into a field of 64 a few years ago.

“College football, we don’t do that,” Spurrier said. “If we had the six conference champs, the six BCS conferences, and two at large teams, almost every player could say ‘well if we really, really have a great year, we could win in all.’ That’s just a suggestion to try to get more in modern times.”

The four-team playoff gives two more teams a chance. Big deal.

My opinion, which doesn’t count, is that the first qualifier for the four-team playoff is that you are unbeaten. You win em all, and you have a chance. Of course the problem comes when, in the rare occasion like 2009 where we had five unbeatens, Boise, TCU, Alabama, Texas and Cincinnati. Its not perfection, its progress.

As is this column. And thank heaven we have football back, finally. This season I’ll be doing a weekly TD & Three, your seven best picks and strategy to win your pick em league.

For the preview this year we’re going to take the AP Top 25 and analyze them in a unique style that will project their record (Including title and bowl games) and their projected floor/ceiling ranking. Let the debate begin.

1.  USC – (14-0) – Ceiling 1 / Floor 5 – The Trojans are finally off the Reggie Bush naughty list and this is the opportunity QB Matt Barkley has been waiting for. Its BCS Title or bust this year. USC has 17 total starters returning from a 10-2 season and barring another slip up to the likes of Arizona State, USC controls their destiny, finally. The one game they have to be aware of, besides the obvious Oregon, is @Washington, which is a team that could see a ranking by year end.

2.  Alabama – (11-2) – Ceiling 3 / Floor 10 – Could Alabama win another title this year. Sure they could, anyone in the SEC could. Alabama returns QB AJ McCarron, yes, but the reality is The Tide were a mediocre 69th in passing offense last year. Their strength is defense and ball control and they lose 1500+ rushing yards and their second-leading receiver with the departure of Trent Richardson, not to mention nine regulars on defense. Their swing games are Michigan, @Arkansas, @Mizzou, @LSU , and I think they lose two of those.

3. LSU – (12-2) – Ceiling 2 / Floor 12 - I see LSU taking a step back. Although their lines are stout, lost is Tyrann Mathieu and his defensive production and special teams game changing. There will be title buzz for the first couple months as their season doesn’t really intensify until Oct 6 @Florida and that four-week stretch will test them.

4. Oklahoma (12-1) – Ceiling 1 / Floor 5 – Oklahoma shouldn’t lose more than one game and they better hope that one game is the BCS title, because if they stumble in the regular season, they risk a one-loss SEC team getting voted ahead of them. But I see Landry Jones sweeping his team through the regular season and the lack of a Big XII title game may benefit them, a la Ohio State a few years back. They return 17 starters from a team that was Top 50 in rushing, 31st in scoring D, 10^th in scoring and 5^th in passing. The Big XII is deep, but I don’t see Kansas State, Okie State or even West Virginia, not to mention an overrated Texas team, having the stones to better the Sooners.

5. Oregon (12-2) Ceiling 5 / Floor 8 – To me, it’s very clear how the Ducks season is going to go down. Their schedule is pretty weak, other than the inevitable track meet against Washington on Oct. 6. Otherwise its simple, they lose twice to USC and win their bowl game. Thus with two losses, they won’t crack the top 4, but won’t be any lower than 8.

6. Georgia (11-3) Ceiling 1/Floor 15 – Georgia is a complete wild card at the No. 6 spot. How lucky they got to be in the SEC and not play Alabama, Arkansas or LSU until the potential SEC title game, which is why I give them a No 1 ceiling. Their tests are @Mizzou, @South Carolina and Florida. They are the one SEC team that you could argue that even if they run the table, you would take an unbeaten Oklahoma over them.

7. Florida State (13-1) Ceiling 1 / Floor 10 – Here we go again with Florida State getting pre-season love. This year I think will be different. In years past I have been correctly critical of their preseason hype. This year I think they deserve it more. Unfortunately for the Seminoles, the ACC isn’t a strong enough conference for any team to withstand one regular season loss and still get into the BCS title. I think FSU loses a regular season game and all hopes are dashed.

8. Michigan (12-2) Ceiling 5/Floor 13 – I applaud Michigan for having the stripes to schedule Alabama right out of the gate and I am in the minority thinking they might actually win that game. However Michigan is still prone to let down (see Iowa 2011). I think they win the Big Ten but drop one to either Michigan State, @Nebraska or @Ohio State.

9. South Carolina – (9-4) Ceiling 10/Floor Unranked – Despite Spurrier’s common sense approach to the playoff system, his team No. 9 South Carolina is way over rated. With Georgia, @LSU, @Florida back-to-back-to-back then Arkansas and @Clemson, I’m hard pressed to see how the Cocks win double digits.

10. Arkansas – (11-2) Ceiling 4 / Floor 16 – Returning QB Tyler Wilson to an offense that was 13^th in passing and 15^th in scoring is a step in the right direction for the Hogs. They get both Alabama and LSU at home but they probably lose at least one of those games, and if they do, they don’t make the SEC championship, considering the three are in the same division. They win them both then they are in the BCS title game vs. USC.

11. West Virginia – (11-2) Ceiling 7 / Floor 23 – Welcome to the Big XII, West Virginia! Their transition to the new conference adds depth to a conference sans title game. On the surface WVU plays five teams in the preseason Top 25. I don’t expect three of those teams to be ranked by year end. With the passing proficiency the Mountaineers have, they should fit right in, but that will also be a challenge for a defense that was 61^st last year. I might be more optimistic than I should be about these guys.

12.Wisconsin – (9-4) Ceiling 15 / Floor 25 – Wisconsin returns Heisman hopeful Monte Ball, but little else. Just 10 starters returning from a team that was two hail Mary’s from a perfect regular season, the Badgers missed their chance last season. They will make the conference championship game by default (Ohio State and Penn State ineligible) but they won’t win. Either Nebraska or Michigan will beat them there. Reputation alone has them No. 12.

13. Michigan State – (8-5) Ceiling 20 / Floor Unranked – Unranked is most likely for the Spartans this year. The defense is the specialty of this team, but last year’s 11-3 was a bit of luck. Three point wins over Georgia and Ohio State and a miracle against Wisconsin or this team is 7-6 last year, and this year’s squad isn’t as good offensively. Schedule includes Boise, Notre Dame and OSU then @Michigan, @Wisconsin, Nebraska all in a row.

14. Clemson – (11-2) Ceiling 5 / Floor 17 – This is perhaps a bit low for Clemson. We will see how they rebound from the Orange Bowl thumping from West Virginia, but if Clemson comes out and stomps Auburn and carries momentum to Florida State they could easily win the ACC. But alas, I think FSU is too good this year. Tajh Boyd is the key.

15. Texas – (8-5) Ceiling 22 / Floor Unranked – This is a joke. Texas isn’t good. They lost 3 of 4 to close the regular season last year and this year they could lose three straight in late September/early October and then likely @KSU to close. McCoy to Shipley isn’t Colt to Jordan … if only.

16. Virginia Tech - (11-3) Ceiling 8 / Floor 16 – The ACC is top loaded. Clemson, FSU, Va Tech 

and everyone else. Va Tech may not be a premier team, but they may be unbeaten until the Oct 20 match-up at Clemson and by then may be a top 10 team. Two of their projected three losses could be to Florida State.

17.  Nebraska – (10-3) – Ceiling 10 / Floor 22 – The Huskers could be the spoiler of the Big Ten. They could get live up to the projection some have of a Fiesta Bowl bid. I’m a bit more skeptical. Until Nebraska proves it won’t overlook games like Northwestern last year, and they can win on the road, I’ll temper. Nebraska is probably the third best team in the conference, but the stretch of five games, three on the road in the heart of the season will be a true test. The offense if pretty much intact. The defense is assumed to be collectively better, and the Big Ten is down this year in my opinion. They have to beat Michigan at home to play for a title.

18.  Ohio State – (11-1) – Ceiling 5 / Floor 20 – If they were eligible, I would have the Buckeyes winning the Big Ten hands down. Urban Meyer will light Columbus on fire this year and if Braxton Miller can mature into his role at QB, he could be Terrelle Pryor reincarnate (skills-wise). They get both Michigan and Nebraska at home, which I believe to be their toughest two games.

19. Oklahoma State – (8-5) – Ceiling 20 / Floor Unranked – The loss to Iowa State will haunt the Cowboys until they get back to the top of the mountain. The losses of Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon will haunt them badly this year. Going from a 28 year-old QB to a trufrosh 18 year-old will come with adjustment and that adjustment feels like four games.

20. TCU – (9-4) – Ceiling 20 / Floor Unranked – TCU could creep into the top 15, if not higher as their schedule doesn’t get difficult until late October. I could see them starting 7-0 or 6-1 but they finish with five straight pre-season Top 25 teams.

21.  Stanford – (10-3) Ceiling 12 / Floor 25 – They don’t get much prep for USC in the first couple games against San Jose and Duke and the USC loss will look worse than it actually is for this team. Stanford returns the core of a top 20 rushing game and will be fine for most games in the Pac 12.

22. Kansas State – (10-3) Ceiling 14 / Floor Unranked – Kansas State is an interesting wrinkle in the Big XII. Their only three losses last year came against teams that finished in the top 10. However seven of their wins were by seven points or less. Colin Klein is a force many teams won’t be able to deal with.

23.  Florida – (8-5) Ceiling 24 / Floor unranked – Florida shouldn’t be ranked, but because they are going into the year ranked, they probably will be until they play LSU on Oct 6. They might go 1-4 over those next five and the season will be lost.

24.  Boise State – (11-2) Ceiling 10 / Floor 20 – If Boise loses to Michigan State (which I don’t think they will), they won’t be ranked again until the pollsters start looking for one-loss teams in October. Do I think Boise is a top 10 team? Not this year. But I think Chris Petersen is a good enough coach to get the team past a weak schedule again.

25. Louisville – (11-3) – Ceiling 20 / Floor Unranked. Are we discussing the Big East this year? No? Ok.

In case you haven't figured out by now, I am picking USC to beat Oklahoma in the BCS Championship this year. Yes, LSU, Alabama and Georgia have a shot, but Georgia  mostly due to their easier road. Don’t forget to check back weekly for TD & Three, your weekly picks breakdown and thank me later!

View from the HD: College Football V.2011 - Week 4

You know what makes college football different for me? I would rather watch literally any college football game rather than ESPN's College Game Day. By contrast, I like the NFL, but I'm equally or more excited to watch the fantasy football show or NFL Countdown then the NFL games themselves. I'm not sure why its like that for me, but I can't be the only one. 
Let's get crackin!
I was so ready to crucify Oklahoma State at halftime of their game against Texas A&M. Every year the Cowboys come in firing hot and in their first big game test to prove legitimacy they seem to let it slip. Not this time. State showed character coming from 17 down to win the game and they may actually have a decent defense as they only gave up seven second-half points (nobody counts that safety). Oklahoma State is poised for a really nice year and they get Baylor and Oklahoma at home. I'm now a believer.

Week four and one of the polls finally got it right as the AP has LSU No. 1. USA Today still has them at No. 2.
So my Top 10 looks like this:  
1. LSU - No other unbeaten team in college football has beaten two teams in this week's Top 25, one on the road. They hung 40+ on both Oregon and West Virgina. Enough said.
2. Alabama - The Tide defense has only allowed 32 points in four games. Just eight points per game. Stout!
3. Oklahoma State- Too high? Just ask Nebraska how easy it is to win AT A&M, when you're playing 11 on 12. See Oklahoma's ranking for further justification.
4. Boise State - All they do is win by 20 every week.  
5. Oklahoma - Florida State losing to Clemson takes a bit of cred from the Sooners. They will have plenty of chances to earn it back with Texas, A&M, Baylor and OKSt. still on the schedule.
6. Stanford- Another team known for offense whose defense is better than you think. Just 27 points allowed, yet against three weaker teams. 
7. Wisconsin- Have blown out four cupcakes by a combined 194-34. Week four against South Dakota though? Unfair. 
8. Nebraska - Moves up by sheer attrition. Defense may be improving with the return of some walking wounded. True test is this week at Wisconsin.
9. South Carolina  - They have been winning close games but they won't get tested again until November. By then, they will be 8-0 and a solid Top 10 team.
10. Clemson - Clemson? Yeah, they snapped the longest winning streak in football with the win against Auburn and followed that up by hanging 35 on Florida State, something Oklahoma couldn't do. No big deal.

Teams on Top 25 radar: Illinois (I know some polls have them in, but I'm not quite ready to give them that yet), Kansas State (play Baylor this week), Houston, Auburn, Iowa, Washington. Michigan State.

Games of the week: 
Nebraska @ Wisconsin - Welcome to the Big Ten and Camp Randall, Huskers. Nebraska is 0-8 in their last eight as a 10+ point dog. Nebraska's defensive philosophy is bend don't break, but Badger QB Russell Wilson is breaking everyone. Rumors of the black uniforms coming out to play for the Huskers, and fans will rock black but will the Blackshirts?
Clemson @ Virginia Tech - What looked like a ho-hum ACC game a month ago has BCS implications now. Clemson QB Tahj Boyd is 66% passing, 13 TDs and two picks. Ridiculous numbers, especially for a sophomore. Virginia Tech has a solid run game and usually wins the intangible battle.
Alabama @ Florida - This is the first in a long line of major SEC match-ups this year. This week we get to see if Florida is a pretender. The Gators have rolled on without much opposition but Alabama is battle tested and road tested already traveling to Penn State.

Random Thoughts
-Why on God's green earth is Texas ranked? Ohhh you beat BYU by a point and you break out against a bottom 10 UCLA team. Let's get real. Reputation has carried them to their current ranking, but pay no mind to that and let me be the one who said "I told you so" when they finish with four losses.
-Don't look now, but Iowa State in undefeated. But they have a month from hell coming up. Texas, at Baylor, at Mizzou, A&M at home. If they go 2-2 over next four, give them some love.
-Who would have thought with all the fantastic games last weekend, we would still be talking about Toledo v. Syracuse. You stand under the pole, parallel with the line to rule a kick in our out, and you screw that up? No wonder the Big East is in trouble. Good win, Toledo.
- Kudos to Wisconsin for scheduling a week four game against South Dakota. That's something you do in week one, not a softie right before Nebraska. The Coyotes, however would like to thank you for showing some discretion by not running up 70+ points like you did three times last year (83 against Indiana).
- Notre Dame v. Pitt was unwatchable. Just sayin.
- Congrats to Minnesota for dropping a game to a I-AA team for the second straight year after surviving a three-point win over South Dakota State in 2009. They aren't the only ones, though. UNLV lost at home by 25 to Southern Utah.
-Sick stat of the week: Baylor QB RG3 has more touchdown passes (13) than incompletions (12).
-Its the verge of UNO hockey season already? Holy crap!

Conference Breakdown
The Big XII is 28-4 with five teams in the top 17 (if you believe in Texas), and seven unbeatens. No other conference has more than four. Two of those losses are intra-conference already, which means a 26-2 non-conference. You can't argue with that. They are heading into conference season and the cream will rise, but the conference has at least two legit national championship contenders.

The SEC actually only has five teams in the Top 25 right now entering the meat of conference play. The SEC has some signature wins but also a couple of unfortunate losses. They are two-team top heavy, but really bad at the bottom. I wouldn't say its a down year because LSU and Alabama are in the conversation until December, but their bottom looks a lot like the bottom of the Big Ten.

The BigTen championship is this weekend. Pay no mind to whatever game in late December, unless its a rematch. The winner of the Wisconsin v. Nebraska match has the inside track to a conference crown. Illinois has been the story of the league so far, however. Allowing only 13 points a game and a win over Arizona State has given them some attention. Can they sustain? 

South Florida is carrying the flag for the Big East and is trying to earn eight wins for the sixth season in a row. Not bad for a "who's that" program before this streak. West Virginia stands in their way in the last game of the season, but look for the Bulls to keep charging forward. I don't think they are a Top 10 team but they may get there if they survive this upcoming stretch of four of their next five on the road.

Do I really have to talk about the Pac-12 the week? Stanford and Oregon are head and feathers above the rest and its not just Luck. Nice try making a name for yourself Washington and Arizona State. Oh and good pick up by adding Colorado. 

Predictions
Locks: 
1. West Virginia coming off an undressing against LSU will bounce back huge and run through Bowling Green like tissue paper. Maybe by 30. 
2.Northern Illinois over Central Michigan. The Chips may be in the Bottom 10 in football. In their last 10 quarters Central Michigan has been outscored 100-21. The only team NIU didn't score 40 on was Wisconsin.
3. Are the football god's really giving us Stanford at home against a reeling UCLA team? Thank you!
*4. Bonus over - Kansas and Texas Tech - I know a couple weeks ago I picked KU and the Georgia Tech over and that was too easy. Back to KU and Tech. Combined averaging 42.5 a game. Kansas allowing 40+ a game and Tech hasn't played anyone with any offense.
Upset Alerts: I was a week early on calling a Temple win over a BCS school. Huge win over Maryland. Nice job, boys.
1. Intra-state game for my first upset: Utah State to beat BYU. The Aggies hung tough with Auburn and BYU's QB looked lost at times against Central Florida. If USU jumps out early, hard for the Cougs to recover.
2. Watch out this week, Georgia Tech. You lost six games last year, one of them to North Carolina State. The Jackets travel this year.
3.Iowa State at home over Texas. Cyclones did it last year. Both teams are 3-0 and looking to make a statement. Paul Rhodes gets players jacked up for games like nobody else. The guy is genuine and you want to follow him to battle. A win may get them a ranking.

View from the HD: College Football V.2011 - Week 2

This week is why I love college football. Watching Iowa State celebrate like they had just won a national championship because they won a makeshift rivalry trophy that they later broke, the hype leading up to the Michigan-Notre Dame that proved to be the game of the year so far, the SEC battles we have become familiar with and week after week upset threat like we got with Toledo at Ohio State. Its more thrilling and dramatic than any Hollywood movie, and it's all relatively free from our own living room.
Now, down to the gritty. I began last week talking about my hate of preseason rankings. It's becoming clear they are useless. Without preseason rankings, teams like Notre Dame, TCU, Texas, Penn State, USC and Missouri would never have been given any relevance. And unlike the pollsters, I do rank on style points.
So my Top 10 looks like this:  
1. LSU - Best resume of top tier team so far. The significance of the Oregon win will be realized over the next few weeks as Oregon rolls its next few opponents.  
2. Alabama - Moves up this week after leaving Happy Valley, well, happy and proving SEC dominance.
3. Oklahoma - Didn't play this week, but could jump to No. 1 with a convincing win at Florida State
4. Boise State - Their toughest game is behind them. Their only task now is to not beat themselves.  
5. Wisconsin - Jumps three spots after a shutout win over Oregon State.  
6. Stanford - Struggled in the first half at Duke, but came back strong and won big.  
7. Texas A&M - Off this week along with many Big XII teams. Very tough road coming up that will test how good they really are.
8. Oklahoma State - Surprisingly impressive defensive performance against a dangerous QB for Arizona. Test of mettle with their next 4 of 5 on the road including A&M and Texas.  
9. South Carolina - They have been tested twice already which should pay dividends in the SEC. Don't overlook Navy this week, one of my must see games.  
10. Nebraska - The Huskers certainly didn't look like a Top 10 team in the first 40 minutes against Fresno State. And is it just me or does Taylor Martinez look like he is shot-putting every pass?  

Games of the week: Oklahoma @ Florida State- Big time national championship implications. Is Florida State for real? Navy @ South Carolina - Clash of styles and a third test for South Carolina. Don't be surprised if this is tight game also. Oklahoma State @ Tulsa - If you like the long ball, this will appeal. Justin Blackmon is the most impressive receiver in the game right now.  
Teams on Top 25 radar: Michigan, Northwestern, Houston, Maryland, UCF.  

Observing the Obvious
-There ought to be more night games in the Big House. Michigan vs. Notre Dame was by far the game of the year. One question. Did anyone tell either defense the game was not actually over in the last couple minutes?
-Nebraska better get its house in order. I don't know if they could beat Wisconsin, Michigan State or Michigan right now. They need Dennard back and quick to help relieve their secondary. They will still roll Washington but they must get better and fast.
- You all know by now I love ripping Notre Dame for their undeserved high regard in college football, but both the Domers and Georgia are much better than their 0-2 record. Unfortunately they have to win some of these swing games because the road for both gets no easier and they could each lose 5-6 games this year.  

Conference Breakdown
Its a real shame that the Big XII appears to be going the way of the Titanic, and coincidentally enough, exactly 100 years after the doomed vessel sank in 1912. Blame Texas, blame the commish, blame whoever or whatever, but its a shame that Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Texas A&M and an emerging Baylor team that could be such a power will no longer co-exist. The conference is 14-1 this season, by far the best in football so far.

The SEC went unbeaten in non-conference play, again flexing their muscle. They have began to beat up on each other in conference with South Carolina's edging of Georgia and Auburn clipping up-and-commer Mississippi State. Five of the six SEC West teams are in the ESPN Top 25. Read that again and try to wrap your head around that figure.
The Big 10 had kind of a tough week. Does anyone else wish Toledo would have beaten Ohio State?  Iowa falls in rivalry, the Huskers nearly get shucked, Minnesota loses to ... New Mexico State? They still play ball? The biggest winner on the week was Illinois, a 53-point spanking of South Dakota whoever. Another round of non-conference snoozers this week, except for Michigan State vs. Notre Dame. More on the ASU vs. Illinois game later.

The Big East is a battle for the best of the irrelevant. West Virginia, South Florida, Pitt, none of them really matter in the long run. Virginia Tech is my dark horse to get to the BCS title game. Their only competition in the ACC is Florida State and the Hokies won't play the Seminoles until the championship game. Its very similar to Boise State, where one game determines if they go unbeaten.

Among the unbeatens in the Pac-12 is Washington and Washington State. Never thought I would write that sentence. Not for long, Washington plays at Nebraska. But the others, USC, Wazzu, Cal and Stanford should still carry the week.

Houston owns the CUSA, Temple the fave in the MAC. We done now?  

Predictions watch for Oregon, Georgia and Baylor.  
Locks: Went 2-1 last week. Who thought Okie State knew how to even spell defense.
1. Nebraska covers Washington. I touched on it last week, but the Huskies have no pass threat and all Nebraska has to do is lock down the run game. And you know they are going to score 40.
2. Iowa covers Pitt. Iowa is at home and pissed. Pitt stinks. Line is 3. Lock it.
3. Northwestern covers Army. You'll glance over this one because its not a sexy game. But the Cats are Top 25 material.
*4. Bonus over - Kansas and Georgia Tech - Kansas is averaging 43 a game, the Jackets 56. Teams allowing average of nearly 30 a game.   
Upset Alerts: Not so hot last week. Central Michigan and Georgia were both outright winning and blew it. Michigan saved my bragging rights.
1. This is a bold one - Temple over Penn State. Temple is poised to make a national splash.
2. Illinois to beat Arizona State. ASU travels to a late game at the Illini and is coming off a high over Mizzou. Trap game.
3. Ohio State over Miami. Yes Miami is the favorite. Cop out? Perhaps. Pun intended, sorry Hurricane fan.

View from the HD: College Football V.2011 - Week 1

The heavens opened up and angels rejoiced on Thursday as the summer doldrums ended and life began anew with the kickoff of college football. I finally bought an HDTV for this reason.
Now, down to business. Top 10, Observations, Conference breakdowns and Week 2 predictions all found below.

Allow me to go on record as saying I hate preseason rankings. Ranking teams on last season's performance in anticipation and potential is fundamentally flawed logic. For example, without preseason polls, Notre Dame is Purdue. After last week, who honestly thinks the Domers are a Top 25 team? Forget nostalgia and lets call a 7-of spades a 7-of spades. Not a real powerful piece of the puzzle, but necessary to complete the deck.

Then again, when in Rome ... so here's what my Top 10 would look like.
1. LSU - Dominated a team that is nearly the same team that went to the title game last year.
2. Oklahoma - They are just flat out good.
3.  Boise St. - Hate on me if you want, but Boise has played "neutral site" games to open the last two seasons and won, this time against an SEC team.
4. Alabama - Second best in the the best conference
5. Stanford - Luck for Heisman!
6. Nebraska - If Taylor stays healthy, only Wisconsin can stop them.
7. Texas A&M - Defense is good, offense is better than expected so far.
8. Wisconsin - Could have hung 80 on UNLV. Defense a bit suspect against the tricky pistol.
9.  Oklahoma State - They are going to play a lot of 56-27 games, but they are going to win them.
10. Virginia Tech - Slaughtered to 1-AA darling Appalachian State. May rise to the top out of sheer attrition and a weak ACC.

What about Florida State? If they beat Oklahoma, I'll put them in the Top 5, until then, they are Notre Dame to me.

Teams on Top 25 radar: Baylor, Maryland, Northwestern, Iowa, Michigan, Houston.

Observing the Obvious

-My wife is among millions of women who do not embrace the start of football season. Count Mother Nature in with that group. Storms ravished the college scene this weekend causing two games to be shortened and a couple more to be delayed, with the Notre Dame game lasting an agonizing six hours. She's a vicious mistress ... Mother Nature, not my wife.

-Notre Dame is overrated. Seriously who do they pay to get ranked each year ? The Irish have been irrelevant for years.

-Poor Tulsa. Their September schedule is something no team would survive. Open with Oklahoma, at Tulane, then Oklahoma State and Boise State. Three Top 10s to start. Ouch. Good news is Conference USA is so weak they could still easily get bowl eligible.

-Boise State is no joke. They come better prepared out of the gate than any other team. Wins over Va Tech and Georgia in the last two opening weeks, both games held in the opponents back yard. Their resume in the last five years now includes a 61-5 record with two wins over Oregon and Oregon State, and wins over TCU, Va Tech, Georgia, Utah and Oklahoma. Time for respect.

- I know I'm jumping ahead a week, but Nebraska will lay waste to Washington for three reasons: 1.The Husker offense should have its legs by then. 2.Washington is nothing without Jake Locker and proved that by nearly losing to Eastern Washington. Their QB threw for just 102 yards. They did win the turnover battle 4-0 a bigger spread than the final score, but couldn't take advantage. 3.Revenge! It will be so sweet.

Conference Break Down

The Pac 12 is soft. There is no sugar coating. The only legit team is Stanford who will run away with the title. Oregon has lost to SEC teams back-to-back in their only shots to prove themselves. USC can't overcome itself and barely overcame a watered-down Minnesota team (pun intended), Washington barely beat Eastern Washington, Hawaii pounded Colorado (the WAC's only win on the week) and Oregon State lost to Sacramento State, who I didn't even know had a team.

The SEC is typically known as a defensive stalwart, but don't expect a ton of 20-10 games this year. The conference put up an average of over 40 points per game, and that includes two teams that put up less than 15 points. Three teams put up 50+.

Say what you want abut the much maligned Big XII, but the 10-team league escaped week one undefeated. That being said, this includes wins over overrated TCU, Eastern Kentucky, Northern Iowa and Miami-OH by a combined 17 points. The gap from top to bottom is immense, and Texas fits somewhere in the middle, despite their off-season entitlement complex.

The Big Ten started out the season strong going 10-2. The schedule however was weak. Northwestern (win) and Minnesota (loss) were the only two teams to play BCS-caliber opponents. Michigan State and Illinois were underwhelming and Indiana lost to Ball State. But the conference is top heavy and has two or three teams that have a shot at the BCS if they don't get in each other's way.

The other undefeated conference in week one was the Big East. The flagship win was South Florida at Notre Dame but few people think a true contender will arise this year. West Virginia should have no problem representing in the BCS this year.

Predictions - My favorite part of the blog
High Score for the week: Last week's winning team was Virginia Tech with 66.
This week's prediction: Wisconsin, at home against Oregon State. Florida State and Stanford also both candidates.
Locks:
1. Oklahoma State vs. Arizona over. Nick Foles will carve a defense already made of Swiss and the Cowboy offense is good for 45 points at minimum.
2. Wisconsin over Oregon State - and I don't care if the spread is 100.
3. Houston over North Texas. Keenum to Carrier is a Top 5 battery in college football.
Upset Alerts
1. Central Michigan over Kentucky. Scoring 14 points against a team that has won 4 games in three 1-A seasons? Not good enough Wildcats.
2. Georgia over South Carolina. Georgia got much better prep for week two than the Cocks did.
3. More - Michigan over ND, Utah over USC, Middle Tenn covers Georgia Tech.