This week is why I love college football. Watching Iowa State celebrate like they had just won a national championship because they won a makeshift rivalry trophy that they later broke, the hype leading up to the Michigan-Notre Dame that proved to be the game of the year so far, the SEC battles we have become familiar with and week after week upset threat like we got with Toledo at Ohio State. Its more thrilling and dramatic than any Hollywood movie, and it's all relatively free from our own living room.
Now, down to the gritty. I began last week talking about my hate of preseason rankings. It's becoming clear they are useless. Without preseason rankings, teams like Notre Dame, TCU, Texas, Penn State, USC and Missouri would never have been given any relevance. And unlike the pollsters, I do rank on style points.
So my Top 10 looks like this:
1. LSU - Best resume of top tier team so far. The significance of the Oregon win will be realized over the next few weeks as Oregon rolls its next few opponents.
2. Alabama - Moves up this week after leaving Happy Valley, well, happy and proving SEC dominance.
3. Oklahoma - Didn't play this week, but could jump to No. 1 with a convincing win at Florida State
4. Boise State - Their toughest game is behind them. Their only task now is to not beat themselves.
5. Wisconsin - Jumps three spots after a shutout win over Oregon State.
6. Stanford - Struggled in the first half at Duke, but came back strong and won big.
7. Texas A&M - Off this week along with many Big XII teams. Very tough road coming up that will test how good they really are.
8. Oklahoma State - Surprisingly impressive defensive performance against a dangerous QB for Arizona. Test of mettle with their next 4 of 5 on the road including A&M and Texas.
9. South Carolina - They have been tested twice already which should pay dividends in the SEC. Don't overlook Navy this week, one of my must see games.
10. Nebraska - The Huskers certainly didn't look like a Top 10 team in the first 40 minutes against Fresno State. And is it just me or does Taylor Martinez look like he is shot-putting every pass?
Games of the week: Oklahoma @ Florida State- Big time national championship implications. Is Florida State for real? Navy @ South Carolina - Clash of styles and a third test for South Carolina. Don't be surprised if this is tight game also. Oklahoma State @ Tulsa - If you like the long ball, this will appeal. Justin Blackmon is the most impressive receiver in the game right now.
Teams on Top 25 radar: Michigan, Northwestern, Houston, Maryland, UCF.
Observing the Obvious
-There ought to be more night games in the Big House. Michigan vs. Notre Dame was by far the game of the year. One question. Did anyone tell either defense the game was not actually over in the last couple minutes?
-Nebraska better get its house in order. I don't know if they could beat Wisconsin, Michigan State or Michigan right now. They need Dennard back and quick to help relieve their secondary. They will still roll Washington but they must get better and fast.
- You all know by now I love ripping Notre Dame for their undeserved high regard in college football, but both the Domers and Georgia are much better than their 0-2 record. Unfortunately they have to win some of these swing games because the road for both gets no easier and they could each lose 5-6 games this year.
Conference Breakdown
Its a real shame that the Big XII appears to be going the way of the Titanic, and coincidentally enough, exactly 100 years after the doomed vessel sank in 1912. Blame Texas, blame the commish, blame whoever or whatever, but its a shame that Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Texas A&M and an emerging Baylor team that could be such a power will no longer co-exist. The conference is 14-1 this season, by far the best in football so far.
The SEC went unbeaten in non-conference play, again flexing their muscle. They have began to beat up on each other in conference with South Carolina's edging of Georgia and Auburn clipping up-and-commer Mississippi State. Five of the six SEC West teams are in the ESPN Top 25. Read that again and try to wrap your head around that figure.
The Big 10 had kind of a tough week. Does anyone else wish Toledo would have beaten Ohio State? Iowa falls in rivalry, the Huskers nearly get shucked, Minnesota loses to ... New Mexico State? They still play ball? The biggest winner on the week was Illinois, a 53-point spanking of South Dakota whoever. Another round of non-conference snoozers this week, except for Michigan State vs. Notre Dame. More on the ASU vs. Illinois game later.
The Big East is a battle for the best of the irrelevant. West Virginia, South Florida, Pitt, none of them really matter in the long run. Virginia Tech is my dark horse to get to the BCS title game. Their only competition in the ACC is Florida State and the Hokies won't play the Seminoles until the championship game. Its very similar to Boise State, where one game determines if they go unbeaten.
Among the unbeatens in the Pac-12 is Washington and Washington State. Never thought I would write that sentence. Not for long, Washington plays at Nebraska. But the others, USC, Wazzu, Cal and Stanford should still carry the week.
Houston owns the CUSA, Temple the fave in the MAC. We done now?
Predictions watch for Oregon, Georgia and Baylor.
Locks: Went 2-1 last week. Who thought Okie State knew how to even spell defense.
1. Nebraska covers Washington. I touched on it last week, but the Huskies have no pass threat and all Nebraska has to do is lock down the run game. And you know they are going to score 40.
2. Iowa covers Pitt. Iowa is at home and pissed. Pitt stinks. Line is 3. Lock it.
3. Northwestern covers Army. You'll glance over this one because its not a sexy game. But the Cats are Top 25 material.
*4. Bonus over - Kansas and Georgia Tech - Kansas is averaging 43 a game, the Jackets 56. Teams allowing average of nearly 30 a game.
Upset Alerts: Not so hot last week. Central Michigan and Georgia were both outright winning and blew it. Michigan saved my bragging rights.
1. This is a bold one - Temple over Penn State. Temple is poised to make a national splash.
2. Illinois to beat Arizona State. ASU travels to a late game at the Illini and is coming off a high over Mizzou. Trap game.
3. Ohio State over Miami. Yes Miami is the favorite. Cop out? Perhaps. Pun intended, sorry Hurricane fan.
Showing posts with label Notre Dame. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Notre Dame. Show all posts
9/6/11
View from the HD: College Football V.2011 - Week 1
The heavens opened up and angels rejoiced on Thursday as the summer doldrums ended and life began anew with the kickoff of college football. I finally bought an HDTV for this reason.
Now, down to business. Top 10, Observations, Conference breakdowns and Week 2 predictions all found below.
Allow me to go on record as saying I hate preseason rankings. Ranking teams on last season's performance in anticipation and potential is fundamentally flawed logic. For example, without preseason polls, Notre Dame is Purdue. After last week, who honestly thinks the Domers are a Top 25 team? Forget nostalgia and lets call a 7-of spades a 7-of spades. Not a real powerful piece of the puzzle, but necessary to complete the deck.
Then again, when in Rome ... so here's what my Top 10 would look like.
1. LSU - Dominated a team that is nearly the same team that went to the title game last year.
2. Oklahoma - They are just flat out good.
3. Boise St. - Hate on me if you want, but Boise has played "neutral site" games to open the last two seasons and won, this time against an SEC team.
4. Alabama - Second best in the the best conference
5. Stanford - Luck for Heisman!
6. Nebraska - If Taylor stays healthy, only Wisconsin can stop them.
7. Texas A&M - Defense is good, offense is better than expected so far.
8. Wisconsin - Could have hung 80 on UNLV. Defense a bit suspect against the tricky pistol.
9. Oklahoma State - They are going to play a lot of 56-27 games, but they are going to win them.
10. Virginia Tech - Slaughtered to 1-AA darling Appalachian State. May rise to the top out of sheer attrition and a weak ACC.
What about Florida State? If they beat Oklahoma, I'll put them in the Top 5, until then, they are Notre Dame to me.
Teams on Top 25 radar: Baylor, Maryland, Northwestern, Iowa, Michigan, Houston.
Observing the Obvious
-My wife is among millions of women who do not embrace the start of football season. Count Mother Nature in with that group. Storms ravished the college scene this weekend causing two games to be shortened and a couple more to be delayed, with the Notre Dame game lasting an agonizing six hours. She's a vicious mistress ... Mother Nature, not my wife.
-Notre Dame is overrated. Seriously who do they pay to get ranked each year ? The Irish have been irrelevant for years.
-Poor Tulsa. Their September schedule is something no team would survive. Open with Oklahoma, at Tulane, then Oklahoma State and Boise State. Three Top 10s to start. Ouch. Good news is Conference USA is so weak they could still easily get bowl eligible.
-Boise State is no joke. They come better prepared out of the gate than any other team. Wins over Va Tech and Georgia in the last two opening weeks, both games held in the opponents back yard. Their resume in the last five years now includes a 61-5 record with two wins over Oregon and Oregon State, and wins over TCU, Va Tech, Georgia, Utah and Oklahoma. Time for respect.
- I know I'm jumping ahead a week, but Nebraska will lay waste to Washington for three reasons: 1.The Husker offense should have its legs by then. 2.Washington is nothing without Jake Locker and proved that by nearly losing to Eastern Washington. Their QB threw for just 102 yards. They did win the turnover battle 4-0 a bigger spread than the final score, but couldn't take advantage. 3.Revenge! It will be so sweet.
Conference Break Down
The Pac 12 is soft. There is no sugar coating. The only legit team is Stanford who will run away with the title. Oregon has lost to SEC teams back-to-back in their only shots to prove themselves. USC can't overcome itself and barely overcame a watered-down Minnesota team (pun intended), Washington barely beat Eastern Washington, Hawaii pounded Colorado (the WAC's only win on the week) and Oregon State lost to Sacramento State, who I didn't even know had a team.
The SEC is typically known as a defensive stalwart, but don't expect a ton of 20-10 games this year. The conference put up an average of over 40 points per game, and that includes two teams that put up less than 15 points. Three teams put up 50+.
Say what you want abut the much maligned Big XII, but the 10-team league escaped week one undefeated. That being said, this includes wins over overrated TCU, Eastern Kentucky, Northern Iowa and Miami-OH by a combined 17 points. The gap from top to bottom is immense, and Texas fits somewhere in the middle, despite their off-season entitlement complex.
The Big Ten started out the season strong going 10-2. The schedule however was weak. Northwestern (win) and Minnesota (loss) were the only two teams to play BCS-caliber opponents. Michigan State and Illinois were underwhelming and Indiana lost to Ball State. But the conference is top heavy and has two or three teams that have a shot at the BCS if they don't get in each other's way.
The other undefeated conference in week one was the Big East. The flagship win was South Florida at Notre Dame but few people think a true contender will arise this year. West Virginia should have no problem representing in the BCS this year.
Predictions - My favorite part of the blog
High Score for the week: Last week's winning team was Virginia Tech with 66.
This week's prediction: Wisconsin, at home against Oregon State. Florida State and Stanford also both candidates.
Locks:
1. Oklahoma State vs. Arizona over. Nick Foles will carve a defense already made of Swiss and the Cowboy offense is good for 45 points at minimum.
2. Wisconsin over Oregon State - and I don't care if the spread is 100.
3. Houston over North Texas. Keenum to Carrier is a Top 5 battery in college football.
Upset Alerts
1. Central Michigan over Kentucky. Scoring 14 points against a team that has won 4 games in three 1-A seasons? Not good enough Wildcats.
2. Georgia over South Carolina. Georgia got much better prep for week two than the Cocks did.
3. More - Michigan over ND, Utah over USC, Middle Tenn covers Georgia Tech.
Now, down to business. Top 10, Observations, Conference breakdowns and Week 2 predictions all found below.
Allow me to go on record as saying I hate preseason rankings. Ranking teams on last season's performance in anticipation and potential is fundamentally flawed logic. For example, without preseason polls, Notre Dame is Purdue. After last week, who honestly thinks the Domers are a Top 25 team? Forget nostalgia and lets call a 7-of spades a 7-of spades. Not a real powerful piece of the puzzle, but necessary to complete the deck.
Then again, when in Rome ... so here's what my Top 10 would look like.
1. LSU - Dominated a team that is nearly the same team that went to the title game last year.
2. Oklahoma - They are just flat out good.
3. Boise St. - Hate on me if you want, but Boise has played "neutral site" games to open the last two seasons and won, this time against an SEC team.
4. Alabama - Second best in the the best conference
5. Stanford - Luck for Heisman!
6. Nebraska - If Taylor stays healthy, only Wisconsin can stop them.
7. Texas A&M - Defense is good, offense is better than expected so far.
8. Wisconsin - Could have hung 80 on UNLV. Defense a bit suspect against the tricky pistol.
9. Oklahoma State - They are going to play a lot of 56-27 games, but they are going to win them.
10. Virginia Tech - Slaughtered to 1-AA darling Appalachian State. May rise to the top out of sheer attrition and a weak ACC.
What about Florida State? If they beat Oklahoma, I'll put them in the Top 5, until then, they are Notre Dame to me.
Teams on Top 25 radar: Baylor, Maryland, Northwestern, Iowa, Michigan, Houston.
Observing the Obvious
-My wife is among millions of women who do not embrace the start of football season. Count Mother Nature in with that group. Storms ravished the college scene this weekend causing two games to be shortened and a couple more to be delayed, with the Notre Dame game lasting an agonizing six hours. She's a vicious mistress ... Mother Nature, not my wife.
-Notre Dame is overrated. Seriously who do they pay to get ranked each year ? The Irish have been irrelevant for years.
-Poor Tulsa. Their September schedule is something no team would survive. Open with Oklahoma, at Tulane, then Oklahoma State and Boise State. Three Top 10s to start. Ouch. Good news is Conference USA is so weak they could still easily get bowl eligible.
-Boise State is no joke. They come better prepared out of the gate than any other team. Wins over Va Tech and Georgia in the last two opening weeks, both games held in the opponents back yard. Their resume in the last five years now includes a 61-5 record with two wins over Oregon and Oregon State, and wins over TCU, Va Tech, Georgia, Utah and Oklahoma. Time for respect.
- I know I'm jumping ahead a week, but Nebraska will lay waste to Washington for three reasons: 1.The Husker offense should have its legs by then. 2.Washington is nothing without Jake Locker and proved that by nearly losing to Eastern Washington. Their QB threw for just 102 yards. They did win the turnover battle 4-0 a bigger spread than the final score, but couldn't take advantage. 3.Revenge! It will be so sweet.
Conference Break Down
The Pac 12 is soft. There is no sugar coating. The only legit team is Stanford who will run away with the title. Oregon has lost to SEC teams back-to-back in their only shots to prove themselves. USC can't overcome itself and barely overcame a watered-down Minnesota team (pun intended), Washington barely beat Eastern Washington, Hawaii pounded Colorado (the WAC's only win on the week) and Oregon State lost to Sacramento State, who I didn't even know had a team.
The SEC is typically known as a defensive stalwart, but don't expect a ton of 20-10 games this year. The conference put up an average of over 40 points per game, and that includes two teams that put up less than 15 points. Three teams put up 50+.
Say what you want abut the much maligned Big XII, but the 10-team league escaped week one undefeated. That being said, this includes wins over overrated TCU, Eastern Kentucky, Northern Iowa and Miami-OH by a combined 17 points. The gap from top to bottom is immense, and Texas fits somewhere in the middle, despite their off-season entitlement complex.
The Big Ten started out the season strong going 10-2. The schedule however was weak. Northwestern (win) and Minnesota (loss) were the only two teams to play BCS-caliber opponents. Michigan State and Illinois were underwhelming and Indiana lost to Ball State. But the conference is top heavy and has two or three teams that have a shot at the BCS if they don't get in each other's way.
The other undefeated conference in week one was the Big East. The flagship win was South Florida at Notre Dame but few people think a true contender will arise this year. West Virginia should have no problem representing in the BCS this year.
Predictions - My favorite part of the blog
High Score for the week: Last week's winning team was Virginia Tech with 66.
This week's prediction: Wisconsin, at home against Oregon State. Florida State and Stanford also both candidates.
Locks:
1. Oklahoma State vs. Arizona over. Nick Foles will carve a defense already made of Swiss and the Cowboy offense is good for 45 points at minimum.
2. Wisconsin over Oregon State - and I don't care if the spread is 100.
3. Houston over North Texas. Keenum to Carrier is a Top 5 battery in college football.
Upset Alerts
1. Central Michigan over Kentucky. Scoring 14 points against a team that has won 4 games in three 1-A seasons? Not good enough Wildcats.
2. Georgia over South Carolina. Georgia got much better prep for week two than the Cocks did.
3. More - Michigan over ND, Utah over USC, Middle Tenn covers Georgia Tech.
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