2012 College Football Preview

I'm not quite sure why the polls are always done in a Top 25 format, because in college football it's really only the top two that matter and only about 15 that are relevant. I guess its so guys like me can incite debates with blogs. 

Like South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier said in a preseason interview “The thing I like about baseball is every school in America has a chance to win the National Championship.” He cites Stony Brook in baseball and Butler in basketball, and I’ll add Fresno State to the list, who won the College World Series after being the last team into a field of 64 a few years ago.

“College football, we don’t do that,” Spurrier said. “If we had the six conference champs, the six BCS conferences, and two at large teams, almost every player could say ‘well if we really, really have a great year, we could win in all.’ That’s just a suggestion to try to get more in modern times.”

The four-team playoff gives two more teams a chance. Big deal.

My opinion, which doesn’t count, is that the first qualifier for the four-team playoff is that you are unbeaten. You win em all, and you have a chance. Of course the problem comes when, in the rare occasion like 2009 where we had five unbeatens, Boise, TCU, Alabama, Texas and Cincinnati. Its not perfection, its progress.

As is this column. And thank heaven we have football back, finally. This season I’ll be doing a weekly TD & Three, your seven best picks and strategy to win your pick em league.

For the preview this year we’re going to take the AP Top 25 and analyze them in a unique style that will project their record (Including title and bowl games) and their projected floor/ceiling ranking. Let the debate begin.

1.  USC – (14-0) – Ceiling 1 / Floor 5 – The Trojans are finally off the Reggie Bush naughty list and this is the opportunity QB Matt Barkley has been waiting for. Its BCS Title or bust this year. USC has 17 total starters returning from a 10-2 season and barring another slip up to the likes of Arizona State, USC controls their destiny, finally. The one game they have to be aware of, besides the obvious Oregon, is @Washington, which is a team that could see a ranking by year end.

2.  Alabama – (11-2) – Ceiling 3 / Floor 10 – Could Alabama win another title this year. Sure they could, anyone in the SEC could. Alabama returns QB AJ McCarron, yes, but the reality is The Tide were a mediocre 69th in passing offense last year. Their strength is defense and ball control and they lose 1500+ rushing yards and their second-leading receiver with the departure of Trent Richardson, not to mention nine regulars on defense. Their swing games are Michigan, @Arkansas, @Mizzou, @LSU , and I think they lose two of those.

3. LSU – (12-2) – Ceiling 2 / Floor 12 - I see LSU taking a step back. Although their lines are stout, lost is Tyrann Mathieu and his defensive production and special teams game changing. There will be title buzz for the first couple months as their season doesn’t really intensify until Oct 6 @Florida and that four-week stretch will test them.

4. Oklahoma (12-1) – Ceiling 1 / Floor 5 – Oklahoma shouldn’t lose more than one game and they better hope that one game is the BCS title, because if they stumble in the regular season, they risk a one-loss SEC team getting voted ahead of them. But I see Landry Jones sweeping his team through the regular season and the lack of a Big XII title game may benefit them, a la Ohio State a few years back. They return 17 starters from a team that was Top 50 in rushing, 31st in scoring D, 10^th in scoring and 5^th in passing. The Big XII is deep, but I don’t see Kansas State, Okie State or even West Virginia, not to mention an overrated Texas team, having the stones to better the Sooners.

5. Oregon (12-2) Ceiling 5 / Floor 8 – To me, it’s very clear how the Ducks season is going to go down. Their schedule is pretty weak, other than the inevitable track meet against Washington on Oct. 6. Otherwise its simple, they lose twice to USC and win their bowl game. Thus with two losses, they won’t crack the top 4, but won’t be any lower than 8.

6. Georgia (11-3) Ceiling 1/Floor 15 – Georgia is a complete wild card at the No. 6 spot. How lucky they got to be in the SEC and not play Alabama, Arkansas or LSU until the potential SEC title game, which is why I give them a No 1 ceiling. Their tests are @Mizzou, @South Carolina and Florida. They are the one SEC team that you could argue that even if they run the table, you would take an unbeaten Oklahoma over them.

7. Florida State (13-1) Ceiling 1 / Floor 10 – Here we go again with Florida State getting pre-season love. This year I think will be different. In years past I have been correctly critical of their preseason hype. This year I think they deserve it more. Unfortunately for the Seminoles, the ACC isn’t a strong enough conference for any team to withstand one regular season loss and still get into the BCS title. I think FSU loses a regular season game and all hopes are dashed.

8. Michigan (12-2) Ceiling 5/Floor 13 – I applaud Michigan for having the stripes to schedule Alabama right out of the gate and I am in the minority thinking they might actually win that game. However Michigan is still prone to let down (see Iowa 2011). I think they win the Big Ten but drop one to either Michigan State, @Nebraska or @Ohio State.

9. South Carolina – (9-4) Ceiling 10/Floor Unranked – Despite Spurrier’s common sense approach to the playoff system, his team No. 9 South Carolina is way over rated. With Georgia, @LSU, @Florida back-to-back-to-back then Arkansas and @Clemson, I’m hard pressed to see how the Cocks win double digits.

10. Arkansas – (11-2) Ceiling 4 / Floor 16 – Returning QB Tyler Wilson to an offense that was 13^th in passing and 15^th in scoring is a step in the right direction for the Hogs. They get both Alabama and LSU at home but they probably lose at least one of those games, and if they do, they don’t make the SEC championship, considering the three are in the same division. They win them both then they are in the BCS title game vs. USC.

11. West Virginia – (11-2) Ceiling 7 / Floor 23 – Welcome to the Big XII, West Virginia! Their transition to the new conference adds depth to a conference sans title game. On the surface WVU plays five teams in the preseason Top 25. I don’t expect three of those teams to be ranked by year end. With the passing proficiency the Mountaineers have, they should fit right in, but that will also be a challenge for a defense that was 61^st last year. I might be more optimistic than I should be about these guys.

12.Wisconsin – (9-4) Ceiling 15 / Floor 25 – Wisconsin returns Heisman hopeful Monte Ball, but little else. Just 10 starters returning from a team that was two hail Mary’s from a perfect regular season, the Badgers missed their chance last season. They will make the conference championship game by default (Ohio State and Penn State ineligible) but they won’t win. Either Nebraska or Michigan will beat them there. Reputation alone has them No. 12.

13. Michigan State – (8-5) Ceiling 20 / Floor Unranked – Unranked is most likely for the Spartans this year. The defense is the specialty of this team, but last year’s 11-3 was a bit of luck. Three point wins over Georgia and Ohio State and a miracle against Wisconsin or this team is 7-6 last year, and this year’s squad isn’t as good offensively. Schedule includes Boise, Notre Dame and OSU then @Michigan, @Wisconsin, Nebraska all in a row.

14. Clemson – (11-2) Ceiling 5 / Floor 17 – This is perhaps a bit low for Clemson. We will see how they rebound from the Orange Bowl thumping from West Virginia, but if Clemson comes out and stomps Auburn and carries momentum to Florida State they could easily win the ACC. But alas, I think FSU is too good this year. Tajh Boyd is the key.

15. Texas – (8-5) Ceiling 22 / Floor Unranked – This is a joke. Texas isn’t good. They lost 3 of 4 to close the regular season last year and this year they could lose three straight in late September/early October and then likely @KSU to close. McCoy to Shipley isn’t Colt to Jordan … if only.

16. Virginia Tech - (11-3) Ceiling 8 / Floor 16 – The ACC is top loaded. Clemson, FSU, Va Tech 

and everyone else. Va Tech may not be a premier team, but they may be unbeaten until the Oct 20 match-up at Clemson and by then may be a top 10 team. Two of their projected three losses could be to Florida State.

17.  Nebraska – (10-3) – Ceiling 10 / Floor 22 – The Huskers could be the spoiler of the Big Ten. They could get live up to the projection some have of a Fiesta Bowl bid. I’m a bit more skeptical. Until Nebraska proves it won’t overlook games like Northwestern last year, and they can win on the road, I’ll temper. Nebraska is probably the third best team in the conference, but the stretch of five games, three on the road in the heart of the season will be a true test. The offense if pretty much intact. The defense is assumed to be collectively better, and the Big Ten is down this year in my opinion. They have to beat Michigan at home to play for a title.

18.  Ohio State – (11-1) – Ceiling 5 / Floor 20 – If they were eligible, I would have the Buckeyes winning the Big Ten hands down. Urban Meyer will light Columbus on fire this year and if Braxton Miller can mature into his role at QB, he could be Terrelle Pryor reincarnate (skills-wise). They get both Michigan and Nebraska at home, which I believe to be their toughest two games.

19. Oklahoma State – (8-5) – Ceiling 20 / Floor Unranked – The loss to Iowa State will haunt the Cowboys until they get back to the top of the mountain. The losses of Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon will haunt them badly this year. Going from a 28 year-old QB to a trufrosh 18 year-old will come with adjustment and that adjustment feels like four games.

20. TCU – (9-4) – Ceiling 20 / Floor Unranked – TCU could creep into the top 15, if not higher as their schedule doesn’t get difficult until late October. I could see them starting 7-0 or 6-1 but they finish with five straight pre-season Top 25 teams.

21.  Stanford – (10-3) Ceiling 12 / Floor 25 – They don’t get much prep for USC in the first couple games against San Jose and Duke and the USC loss will look worse than it actually is for this team. Stanford returns the core of a top 20 rushing game and will be fine for most games in the Pac 12.

22. Kansas State – (10-3) Ceiling 14 / Floor Unranked – Kansas State is an interesting wrinkle in the Big XII. Their only three losses last year came against teams that finished in the top 10. However seven of their wins were by seven points or less. Colin Klein is a force many teams won’t be able to deal with.

23.  Florida – (8-5) Ceiling 24 / Floor unranked – Florida shouldn’t be ranked, but because they are going into the year ranked, they probably will be until they play LSU on Oct 6. They might go 1-4 over those next five and the season will be lost.

24.  Boise State – (11-2) Ceiling 10 / Floor 20 – If Boise loses to Michigan State (which I don’t think they will), they won’t be ranked again until the pollsters start looking for one-loss teams in October. Do I think Boise is a top 10 team? Not this year. But I think Chris Petersen is a good enough coach to get the team past a weak schedule again.

25. Louisville – (11-3) – Ceiling 20 / Floor Unranked. Are we discussing the Big East this year? No? Ok.

In case you haven't figured out by now, I am picking USC to beat Oklahoma in the BCS Championship this year. Yes, LSU, Alabama and Georgia have a shot, but Georgia  mostly due to their easier road. Don’t forget to check back weekly for TD & Three, your weekly picks breakdown and thank me later!

View from the HD: College Football V.2011 - Week 9

I give up. I am admitting I can no longer make sense nor predict the landscape of college football. All my locks last week lost outright, all my upset picks got covered and every time I do a feature on a team (Baylor, Kansas State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, not to mention propping Clemson all year) they lose. Stanford remains the one bright spot, on a 14-game cover streak. The old triple overtime eight point win to cover 7.5, no problem!
We're now in the heart of the season and the tide has changed dramatically with five unbeatens falling the last two weeks. We're now left with six unbeatens, at least one of which will fall Saturday and two (Boise State and Houston) that have no shot at a title. Never mind your politics on if Bose deserves a title shot, fact is unless Oklahoma State, LSU and Alabama lose twice, and Stanford loses to Oregon, Boise isn't going.
It will be very interesting to see the BCS standings next Sunday after the most anticipated game of the year between LSU and Alabama. How far will the loser fall? Will there be a possibility of a re-match between the Tigers and the Tide for the national championship, and does anybody want that? If the theory of BCS apologists rings true, that the regular season is the playoff, shouldn't that eliminate the loser from a shot. Isn't this their shot? Interesting. 

Thanks to Clemson, Kansas State, Wisconsin and Michigan State for ruining my Top 10. I have no clue who to put in there now. Here goes nothing ...
1. LSU - Defense allowing less than 12 per game, offense putting up almost 40 per game. Sounds a lot like the final score of their game against Florida. They have consistently beaten each team soundly.
2. Alabama - Ditto pretty much everything that was said about LSU. Alabama giving up less than a touchdown per game, pitching two shutouts and nobody has scored more than 14 against them.
3. Oklahoma State - Through eight games they are maintaining a 50 point per game stretch. Texas is the best defense they have faced and they racked them for 38 in Austin. They don't play a good defense until Oklahoma, if you consider them a good D. Because of that, IF they get to the BCS game they might be in for a rude awakening against whatever SEC team they face.
4. Boise State - I really wish these kids has a chance to play for it all. Last week we saw the difference between Boise State, who has been good for years, and Kansas State, who it just a flash in the pan. Boise would not have been overwhelmed like that.
5. Stanford - They passed their first test of the season. USC gave them more of a battle than I expected, but each time they were down they fought on back. They were opportunistic, Luck didn't rattle after throwing the late pick and they finished.
6. Oregon - I wanted to make some point about how the only reason Oregon is so high is because they lost week one. However their only loss is to the No.1 team and they have blown out everyone else. I still think it would take a miracle to get them to the title, but they still have it to strive for.
*** From this point on, were simply chasing waterfalls. As I eluded to a couple weeks ago, there are only six teams at this point that have a shot at playing in the title game. Those teams are listed above. Its all semantics now and second-tier good, not great teams from here down. 
7. Clemson - I'm sticking with the Tigers. They are an emerging force and with their youth, it was tough for them to figure out Georgia Tech. It's also hard to come from behind against a team like that who prides ball control.
8. Arkansas - Yes, their only loss is to Alabama, but they haven't been lighting it up in their other games either. They should have lost to Texas A&M and Vandy, and Ole Miss was no picnic.
9. Nebraska - If not the Husker, who? Ohio State may be considered a game Nebraska was supposed to win, but they came from way behind to win that game and then made a huge statement against Michigan State. Husker fans are expecting a Big Ten championship appearance now.
10. Houston - Hey, I love the underdog. Ironically they haven't been all year, but another small (non-BCS) school who plays big. Fifty-plus points a game on nearly 500 yards passing. Maybe I have them this high because its just fun to watch. Tell me I'm wrong, tell me they don't play anyone. Fine, who cares, they aren't going anywhere anyway, but another unbeaten throws fuel on the playoff fire, and I love that.

Game of the week
Month, year, century, whatever. I don't talk a lot of SEC football, because I try not write about things I don't know much about. Though my friend Aaron would argue that's not true. But I guess I have to write about this one. A lot of ESPN analysts are calling this game the SuperBowl of college football. No its not. LSU still plays next week. Alabama still has to get ready for Mississippi State afterwards. But they could be right about one thing. The season is over for the loser.
So even though I'm ranking LSU higher than Bama this week, I think the Tide has the edge. Their just a notch better on both offense and defense. There are still players on this Tide team that have tasted a championship. Their on-field experience and their icy-nerved coach puts them in the advantage this week. BamaLSU has had their toughest at home. Now they have to go to Tuscaloosa. Tide in a close one.

For the Homers
I never did like Taylor Martinez. There I said it. He reminded me of Sam Keller, and Sam Keller represented for me the player figure that brought down the Husker tradition. He wasn't a Husker, much like Bill Callahan wasn't a Husker. But Keller came in with the attitude that he was the answer, the savior, the gift Husker fans had been waiting for since Eric Crouch. He was the arm that was going to usher in a new system, the future. He was cocksure and had a swagger and failed spectacularly and led Husker Nation down a four-year funk.
Enter Bo Pelini and Taylor Martinez. I always thought of Pelini more of an Oklahoma guy, LSU guy or an Ohio State guy or his stints in the NFL gave me deja-vu. Sure, Pelini had coached with the Huskers, but just for one year. He wasn't here long enough to "be" a Husker. And yes, I know that his first couple years he had ex-Callahan quarterbacks leading the team, but Joe Ganz and Zac Lee "felt" like Huskers. I don't know how to describe it, but Husker fans know that feeling.
Pelini had his ups and downs but after the leftovers, clearly wanted to run things his way. He was a bit embattled for his fiery attitude and had rubbed some old school fans the wrong way.
Then come Taylor Martinez. This cocky slinger from California. A freshman recruited on the tails of Lee and highly-touted recruit Cody Green. Did he really think he would come in and start over these guys? How dare he.
He did indeed win the job and sparked Nebraska immediately. A 5-0 start and talk of Heisman for a freshman? Sweet, we're back! Then the injury. His audacity with the situation, his insistence on coming back, while still injured. The lackluster finish and finally the bowl loss to a Washington team Nebraska has beaten by 35. To hell with this kid.
The more I watched him struggle to run and rainbow heave passes, the more I disliked him. I dealt with the ugliness of the passing game through the first couple games this season because the team kept winning. And like most of us, I was ready to give up on Martinez and Pelini both after the Wisconsin game. Bo can't win a big one. Martinez will never be a good passer. They don't play to the teams' strengths. The Dirk situation. I wasn't just another mad Husker fan, I was done ... with both of them.
What a difference a Buckeye makes. The first half of that game was more depressing than the second half of the Wisconsin game. But something changed in that game. It all changed. A defensive turnover sparked a comeback. Martinez slung one to Quincy Enunwa and let Rex run wild for a couple more and the miracle was complete.
Pelini said after the game, "You guys can choose to write whatever you want and attack him like the fans will, and now they'll praise him."
And they did, and I did. But it was more than that. They turned a corner, not just for 2011, but as a program, against Ohio State. Bill Callahan teams don't win that game, they mail it in. As a good Pelini team does, the defense led if off with a big turnover. But Martinez started to lean on and trust his team, and especially the veteran and emotional leader, Rex Burkhead. The coaches started to trust Martinez and call to his strengths. The team started to reflect their coach. Fire. And the game against Michigan State cemented that feeling. One of the most complete games Nebraska has played in a decade.

Truth is Martinez is a lot like Pelini. He plays with a chip on his shoulder. He plays with fire, he's a gamer and most of all he hates to lose. He is taking on the personality of his coach, and in turn so is the team. And when everyone gets on the same page with the direction of the team and the program, that's when magic happens. Pelini and Martinez don't coach or play to make the fans happy, they don't apologize for being in control, they don't apologize for creating a new tradition, and not following old traditions to a T. But they will do anything to win and they are mad as hell if they don't. That's the Husker Nation expectation. That's the Husker way. It's time to embrace the new regime. It's young, its brash, its up-and-coming and it makes no bones about wanting to be the best.  

Trivia
Which of these teams ranks in the top five defensively for points against?
1. Central Florida
2. Virginia Tech
3. Michigan State
4. Temple
5. Michigan
*Answer at bottom, after picks


Predictions
Locks: Okay so 0-3 last week, aside from the over pick ,which hit. No where to go but up.
1. Start the weekend off right taking USC over Colorado. Colorado ranks in the bottom 10 in rushing, scoring, and points allowed. They have lost their last four by an average 36.5 per. They gave up 37 to Ohio State during a stretch when the Buckeyes scored just over 14 per in four other games. USC found its offense last week against Stanford.
2. Stanford has covered 14 straight and they get Oregon State this week. Stanford's average score is 49-17 and that includes last weeks eeker against USC. Beavers only score 23 per game against weaker opponents so far and managed only eight against Utah.
3. Oklahoma State won't derail against Kansas State. The wind is out of the Wildcat sails as they move slowly into that good night. Three touchdowns? Might be five.
***Bonus over - Oregon and Washington (74). Oregon and Washington State combined for 71 last week and Oregon only scored 43. The Husky offense is better than Wazzu and their defense is worse. But the Huskies will hang with Oregon for at least a half prompting the Ducks to score again and again. 

Upsets: 
1. Iowa has burned me again and again. However is seems unusual that they are only a four point dog to Michigan. Michigan may come in cocky and assuming they will roll the Hawk fresh off an embarrassment against Minnesota. Don't be surprised by this one.
2. Troy State over Navy. Both teams are struggling, but Navy looked especially bad against Notre Dame. They are without their starting QB and the guy running the offense right now is green.
3. Missouri over Baylor. I hate giving Mizzou any credit at all, considering their Nebraska rivalry, but Missouri figured out who they were last week. Their defense is better than you think and teams are starting to figure RGIII out. Baylor is long past the hype.  

Trivia answer: This is sort of a trick question. Both Temple (No. 4) and UCF (No. 5) are in the top five in points against. Prior to Wednesday night's game against Ohio, Temple actually ranked No. 2 in the country, allowing just 10 points per game on a schedule that included Penn State and Maryland. Perhaps more surprising Michigan actually ranks sixth, ahead of Michigan State at seventh.

View from the HD: College Football V.2011 - Week 8

Let me first apologize for my absence last two weeks. Had something very important to accomplish at work. Thanks to my readers for pressing me to write again this week.

I was really upset to see two unbeatens fall last week. I'm a big proponent of a playoff and the chaos that six or more unbeaten teams would cause would really provide a great new argument. But alas, we're down to eight now, a couple of which play each other. But can you imagine the uproar if unbeaten Clemson and Stanford don't get a title shot, let alone Boise.

This is the week we start to see what garbage the BCS rankings are really. I don't have much issue with the top three, which mirrors mine. Where I start to see holes is Boise at No. 4. You all know I love Boise, but Clemson's resume with back-to-back-to-back wins over Auburn, Florida State and Va Tech should speak louder than Boise's one notable win over Georgia. True that we now know FSU was, as I said week 2, overrated. So Clemson, should be four, Boise five. Its a nit pick.
Stanford had played nobody but sixth is fine. Kansas State is finally getting some love and really should be ahead of Oregon (for now, more on them later). After all they did beat the Texas Tech team that just ruined the Sooner's season.
Things get very strange after that. Oklahoma loses to Tech, yet remain ranked above Arkansas (who's only loss is to Alabama), above Michigan State (who just beat Wisconsin), and above Va Tech (who's only loss is to Clemson).
Wisconsin loses on a last second bomb to a very good Sparty squad and falls from No. 4 to No. 15 BEHIND a Nebraska team that they slaughtered and a South Carolina team who lost to Auburn and has won three other games against lesser opponents by three points or less.
Last comment and its about undefeated Houston. The only difference between Houston's schedule and Boise State's schedule is basically Georgia (unless you consider Boise's resume over last five years, in which case proves the flaws of the BCS in a vacuum). Either Houston should be higher or Boise should be lower. Did you see Case Keenum last night? In just over three quarters he threw for 534 yards and NINE touchdowns ... in a driving rain.

That being said, here's my Top 10 this week:
1. LSU - Two-thirds of the way through their regular season and they have yet to be tested. Outside of a 6-3 halftime score against Mississippi State they have impressively blown everyone else away. Their season begins or ends next week against Alabama.
2. Alabama - Like LSU, they have yet to really find relevant competition. The one thing Alabama has to worry about against LSU is that they start slow sometimes. Tied at half against Tennessee, trailed Florida early and failed to ever really put Penn State away.
3. Oklahoma State- The Cowboys are still being underestimated. Only a seven-point fav at Mizzou and killed that number, winning by 21. They host Baylor this week, which should really teach us something about their defense. Vegas says 80 points and if it goes under its because Baylor was held under 30 points.
4. Clemson - Great story. From unranked to a shot at the title. Tough test against the funky Georgia Tech offense this week, but Georgia Tech is sputtering lately. In it's last three games the Ramblin Wreck has been a wreck only scoring 16.33 points per. Not enough to stop Tajh.0.
5. Boise State - After laying waste to Fresno on national TV a couple weeks ago, they were sloppy against Air Force and their ironic iconic ground attack. They might however hang 100 on UNLV, even if Kellen Moore doesn't play the 2nd half.
6. Stanford - Moves up because of the Oklahoma and Wisconsin losses. They are however 2nd in overall points for and 4th in points against, which has made them a home-gamer darling. I think they have covered every week so far. A bit of a test at USC this week.
7. Kansas State - Wins in consecutive games over Miami, Baylor, Missouri and Texas Tech. Mini-feature after Top 10.
8. Oregon - Been humming along since the loss to LSU. The defense is either better than people think or the Pac-12 offenses really do suck. Date with Stanford looms big time, but I think Oregon is relegated to spoiler at this point.
9. Michigan State - Very gritty win over Wisconsin, with a little luck thrown in as well. The defense and special teams were amazing for the middle 40 minutes of the game. Watch out for the let down at Nebraska this week, though.
10. Wisconsin - Their season may have been ruined last week as I don't think enough obstacles can be over come by year end. They may have a chance for redemption in the Big Ten title game, but now they know how it feels to be Ohio State last year.

The old ball coach has still got the magic. And no, I'm not talking Steve Spurrier. This time, we're talking Bill Snyder of Kansas State. Fresh off his 72nd birthday Snyder is leading Kansas State back to the prominence they has in his previous tenure. The Wildcats are 7-0, battle-tested and hungry to prove themselves as a top tier team. Collin Klein is a machine that hasn't been stopped yet. Against Baylor, he out-Griffin'ed Griffin running for 113 yards and a fourth-quarter touchdown that put the Cats in position to just need a field goal the next drive to win. Klein has thrown for nearly 1000 yards and eight touchdowns, but has run for almost 700 yards and 14 scores. And the defense isn't bad either. Ranked 23rd overall in points against, they held both Texas Tech and Baylor to 35 points or less. The 35 points from Baylor sounds like a lot until you figure their previous season low was 48 against SF Austin, when they shut it down late. And the 34 allowed against Tech is impressive given the vaunted Oklahoma defense allowed 41.
Put this in perspective: If Kansas State runs the table, they will have beaten six, maybe seven teams ranked in the Top 25 this season. If they can beat Oklahoma and Oklahoma Stat in back to back games, they could find themselves No. 2 in the BCS come November 6. The next four games are all against BCS Top 25 teams, so the season is just getting started for Kansas State. Its a real shame Oklahoma lost last week or GameDay would be at the Little Apple this week.

For the Homers: Michigan State at Nebraska preview - Nebraska grew up as a team and may have entered a new era in the comeback win over Ohio State. Last year's Huskers, hell the last six Husker teams, would not have won that game. They thoroughly dismantled Minnesota in the first half and shut it down. The true test of whether they are back or not comes now. Michigan State is coming off a very emotional win over Wisconsin. The difference in the game was their special teams. That blocked punt touchdown changed the whole game and Wisconsin didn't get traction back until it was too late. The Huskers offensive special teams is better than the Spartans with Abdullah returning kicks. However its when Nebraska is kicking or punting that the Spartans are superior. Sparty may have an emotional let down after last week and coming into Lincoln. This game is now bigger for Nebraska than the Wisconsin game was because if the Huskers fail to win this one, all their goals to start the season became all but unattainable. William Gholston coming back for Michigan State makes it harder for Burkhead and unless Quincy Enunwa can become Nick Toon and fast, the Husker pass game might have trouble hauling in the rainbow heaves of Martinez. Every match up points to Michigan State, yet Nebraska is favored. Early kickoff may mean a long hangover for Husker nation. This is a barometer game for Husker Nation.

Predictions
Locks:
Starting Fresh This week:
1. Clemson over Georgia Tech - The Jackets are reeling. After a perfect start they have dropped two disappointing games against Virginia and Miami. This is not the game is looked like two weeks ago and Clemson is not the team you get back on track against. Clemson by 14.
2. Texas A&M over Mizzou - The Tigers are not the team anyone thought they would be and the A&M defense will be the hardest they have faced so far. A&M is looking for a statement game. This is it.
3.Iowa over Minnesota - I usually don't like double digit road favorites, but Minnesota has been gold to pick against. The Hawkeyes got correct against Indiana and the Gophers rank 109th or worse in passing, points for and points against.
***Bonus over*** Oklahoma State v. Baylor is tempting, even at 79, but realize that means we gotta get 21 per quarter in this one. W could also consider SMU at Tulsa. But for overs gold, look for gold helmets ... Notre Dame v. Navy. When ND played a similar type of offense in Air Force, the two combined for 92 points. Navy and AF combined for 69. Navy is top 40 in points for, 83rd in points against.

Upset Alerts:
1. Undefeated Kansas State is a 14 point dog at home against a down Oklahoma team. I'm not coming out and saying KSU wins, but last time they were a double-digit home dog was Baylor and they won that one outright.
2. Coming off a big win over West Virginia, Syracuse has an extra day and are getting points heading into Louisville, who is 114th in points for, averaging just over 16 a game. There is no explanation other than home field that Lou is favored.
3.Oregon State got off to a rocky start, but has put up 36 points a game the last three. Utah has struggled against aggressive passing teams, Washington and Arizona State.