9/30/09

Live Wire Top 25 - Week 4 Let's Start Over

We are now a month into the year. We now know much more about who actually are the best teams in college football than we did coming into the season. This is also about the time the first college football rankings should come out. This way it allows for a perception of what the team is now and not carry over opinions of how good they were last year. So this week I will completely scrap all rankings I have done to this point and start over. Shake it like an Etch-a-Sketch and base the rankings on fact of this season. The rankings are based on this season’s resumes so far and even undefeated teams like Houston and Boise will fall as other team’s schedules get tougher.

1. Alabama (4-0) – Perhaps the toughest schedule of any unbeaten so far with Virginia Tech and Arkansas. They finished strong against V-Tech scoring 18 in the final quarter. Alabama has shown the best defense in college football thus far as they held the Hokies to 155 yards of offense only giving up points on a kickoff return and short fields (the longest touchdown was 51 yards). The Tide allow just over 200 yards on defense per game and have only allowed one fourth-quarter touchdown. They have won by at least 26 points since the 10-point win over V-Tech.

2. Florida (4-0) – The Gators have dominated all comers except Tennessee, who was jacked for the game and several Gators may have been sick. Still, Florida has done what it’s had to do thus far with little letdown. Tim Tebow’s injury comes at a convenient time before a bye week. Then the meat of the schedule begins. Florida avoids Alabama until the SEC Championship. They have about the same schedule strength of Texas at this point and have had bigger wins.

3. Texas (4-0) – Winning by an average score over 49-15 in four games so far. There is a serious lack of competition and Texas started out slow against both Wyoming and Texas Tech. Tech is their only quality win. Meetings against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will improve their stock.

4. Boise State (4-0) – Boise has flat dominated ever opponent like no other team so far this season. They frustrated a good Oregon team to the point of boiling over and have thrashed Miami (OH), Fresno and Bowling Green since. Question is, where does their strength of schedule and dominance rank in relation to say, Houston? The answer is another question … who would win if the two played? I say Boise, so they get the nod.

5. Houston (3-0) - With two wins over upper-echelon Big XII opponents should not be overlooked. They came from behind to beat Texas Tech but make no mistake, they controlled Oklahoma State. Nobody as good remains on the schedule, so they will fall but right now this is where they are.

6. Virginia Tech (3-1) – Give Virginia Tech a ton of credit for their opening four games. Three ranked teams (Alabama, Nebraska and Miami) and no I-AA schools give V-Tech legitimacy. Sure Nebraska dominated them, but they found a way. This is a really good team with the girth of it’s schedule behind it. A BCS game is almost a given this year.

7. Ohio State (3-1) – I’ll give Ohio Stat some leeway for the Navy game because they were looking to USC and Navy is hard to scheme against. Two shutouts against Toledo and Illinois, who supposedly had good offenses, is very impressive. I actually do think Ohio State is better than USC, they just have this Trojan cloud over them. They will bounce back and probably win the Big 10.

8. TCU – (3-0) It was a good challenge for TCU to go to Clemson and get that win. It was also the only game to lend any credence to TCU’s schedule at this point. It’s pretty weak overall and they have offense issues.

9. Cincinnati (4-0) – Respectable opponents thus far in Rutgers, Fresno State and going to Oregon State. They aren’t blowing people out (except for SE Missouri State) but they just keep winning, 14 of their last 15 regular season games in fact.

10. USC – (3-1) This team is just so young. They aren’t mature enough to know who they are. Perennially good defensively, but the offense is lost at best. They will get better as the season goes, but expect another loss.

11. Oklahoma State (3-1) – This is still a very good Cowboy team and will compete for the Big XII South title. Holding Georgia to 10 points has proven more impressive as the year goes on. However they aren’t good enough to look past teams like Houston. The round robin between Texas, Oklahoma and the Cowboys will determine the Big XII representative in the BCS and perhaps the title.

12. Iowa (4-0) - A really shaky start against a very good I-AA Northern Iowa team was a bad sign. But the Hawkeyes have responded with a thumping of rival Iowa State, a sound win over a good Arizona team and a clutch last quarter domination of Penn State. They get Michigan at home October 10.

13. Oklahoma (2-1) – Tremendous defensive team with a great barometer game coming up this week against Miami. I think Oklahoma is a better team than Miami and we shall see. This game is very important to the pecking order of this ranking.

14. Nebraska (3-1) – The Huskers have whacked a trio of Sun Belt teams by a total margin of 142-12. They had the game won against Virginia Tech and couldn’t close. That may be a result of a head coach with less than two years under his belt. Say Nebraska wins they game they are a Top-10 team. As it is, they aren’t mature enough yet. The test at Missouri will say a lot about it the Huskers can win on the road. I do, however expect them to win by two scores.

15. Michigan (4-0) – Michigan has found itself in several too-close-for-comfort games already. They should have lost to Notre Dame, they should have lost to Indiana, but they didn’t. This team has grown up a lot since last year.

16. South Florida (4-0) – Very under the radar unbeaten team and especially since their win over Florida State wasn’t on national television, but trust that South Florida dominated that game. They held a Florida State team that hung 54 on BYU to just seven points. October 15 will tell us who the better team is, the Bulls or Cincinnati. There were a couple I-AA teams on the early schedule but South Florida suffers from Boise State syndrome. Nobody will play them because they are afraid of getting beat.

17. Georgia (3-1) – Likely the most grueling first five games of anyone, all BCS opponents, two of which were ranked in the Top 5. I think Georgia fans will take 3-1 after playing Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Arizona State and South Carolina. No cupcakes here. And it’s for that reason I believe the Bulldogs will beat LSU this week. Don’t believe me? Vegas does, they have Georgia by 3 in the early line.

18. LSU (4-0) – I am not impresses with LSU thus far. Credit their defense for one of the strongest goal line stands to beat Miss. State, but they should never have been in that position. They also struggled with a very average Washington team and have yet to score more than 31 points in any game. Two losses at Georgia and against Florida are coming.

19. Auburn (4-0) – I think Auburn is very under rated so far this year. They have won every game by double digits winning by an average of 21 points, which includes a win over West Virginia. Their lowest team total so far is 37 points. Defense is a big question and historically a lack of defense spells bad news in the SEC. But they blew out the Miss. State team that nearly beat LSU last week. Auburn has yet to play on the road.

20. Wisconsin (4-0) – The Badgers have only one double-digit win against Wofford. Thin wins over Northern Ill., Fresno and Michigan State don’t mean much. It does mean this team knows how to hold on to victory. Ohio State will be a true barometer.

21. Oregon (3-1) - The Ducks have bounced back as well as a team could have after the debacle at Boise State. They have gotten progressively better after fighting off Purdue, they ended off the nation’s longest losing streak in beating Utah and then they turned around a laid waste to Cal. The Ducks are on the rise, but how high?

22. Miami (2-1) – Over-hyped Miami failed badly last week against Virginia Tech. Still their schedule has had all ranked opponents thus far and Oklahoma looms. The really only impressive win was over Georgia Tech. If they beat Oklahoma, they skyrocket. If not they may fall out completely.

23. BYU (3-1) – A real let down against Florida State. I haven’t seen anyone be able to explain that loss. This is another team I can’t really tell how good they are. They beat Oklahoma, and lose to the Seminoles. Looks like the only way we’ll find out is when they play TCU on Oct. 24.

24. Kansas (4-0) – Congrats on going unbeaten against Northern Colorado, UTEP, Duke and Southern Miss. I’m pretty sure over half the country could do that. When you play someone worth mentioning I’ll give some respect.

25. Cal (3-1) – This is what happens when you open with Maryland, Eastern Washington and Minnesota. When you face a real foe who is already battle-tested, you get smacked in the mouth. We’re the Bears looking ahead to USC? It doesn’t matter now their national title hopes are likely dashed.

Teams on the Cusp:
Notre Dame (3-1) – Three-point wins over Michigan State and Purdue aren’t going to give Charlie Weis any job security. And a loss a year ahead of schedule against Michigan wasn’t good. So what makes Notre Dame even a Top 25 consideration, a 35-0 point win over Nevada? Hey, better than Missouri did.
South Carolina (3-1) – South Carolina has won two close battles with NC State and Ole Miss, and lost one close game at Georgia. South Carolina maybe under rated. Their barometer games are later in the year with Alabama on Oct. 17 and Florida in November.
Missouri (4-0) – Quite possibly the messiest track to undefeated in the country. They are 4-0 over Division I teams that are a combined 2-8 and a I-AA team. Not only that but they had to rally to beat Bowling Green and were losing 13-12 to winless Nevada in the third quarter.
Georgia Tech (3-1) – Georgia Tech doesn’t know how good it is, and therefore neither do we. They look sort of inconsistent with a close game against Clemson, a blow-out loss to Miami and a very solid win over over-rated North Carolina. I still don’t know what the Jackets are. Next three against Mississippi State, Florida State and Virginia Tech and we’ll find out.
Penn State (3-1) – Another bad, bad loss to Iowa. Penn State could not close, they could not score and I do not understand what about this team has impressed anyone so far. What, were they looking ahead to Illinois? They can’t score more than 31 against Temple and Akron? Look at it by raw numbers and forget their preseason ranking. What about this team says Top 25?
Ole Miss (2-1) – When Mississippi beat Florida last year they got a ton of national love. Why? Upsets happen all the time (see Washington). They lost four games last year. FOUR! Now they lose to South Carolina and they haven’t beaten anyone. In all honesty, this is not a Top 25 team right now. Watch Alabama beat them by 20 in two weeks.
Utah (3-1) – Has not beaten good teams and have not won by more than 18 and that was against Utah State. Their only test they lost against Oregon.
UCLA (3-0) – The only team in the Pac-10 without a loss. Who would have thought that? Only three games with the most notable win at Tennessee. They struggled more than they should have against Kansas State and the Bruins are only scoring 25 points per game against weak competition.
Stanford (3-1) – Their only loss is on the road at Wake Forest and their most recent win was convincing against a trendy Washington team. If the Cardinal knocks of undefeated UCLA this week, even the national pollsters can’t ignore them.
North Carolina State (3-1) – A 7-3 opening day loss to South Carolina is their only blemish. One dropped pass is the difference between 3-1 and 4-0 and likely a ranking. NC State scored the last three touchdowns in a come-from-behind win over previously unbeaten Pitt.
Arizona (3-1) – Easy wins over lesser foes and a tight conference win over Oregon State last week. Their only loss is to unbeaten Iowa.
Texas A & M (3-0) – Surprise! The Aggies are unbeaten three games into the year. But you should be starting the season with New Mexico, Utah State and UAB, a combined 2-9. Call me if you beat Oklahoma State on Oct. 10.
Southern Miss (3-1) – I don’t think they belong here but they are worth mentioning because they came into the Kansas game on the nation’s second longest win streak at eight games, and they will likely be 7-1 when they face Houston on Halloween.

Biggest Disappointments:
Just when we thought we had new blood in the national championship race we have weeks like this. Ole Miss is not for real and beating Florida last year looks more and more like a fluke. Cal being totally unprepared for Oregon, Penn State losing again to Iowa, and how can you forget Florida State laying an egg.

Random Thoughts:
*Sounds crazy but Colorado State at 3-1 could enter the Top 25 if they get by a 3-1 Idaho team followed by Utah and TCU. A 6-1 record and wins over Utah and TCU would at least put them into the conversation.
*Fresno State may be the best 1-3 team ever. Fresno hung with Boise State for three quarters, had an overtime loss to unbeaten Wisconsin at Wisconsin and they gave unbeaten Cincinnati their only test of the year, failing on a late game-tying drive. They are the only team in college football to play three undefeated teams, keeping alive Pat Hill’s philosophy to take on all comers.
*Four SEC Teams and four Big XII teams are undefeated. The only undefeated team in the Pac 10 is UCLA. Every MAC team except Central Michigan already has at least two losses. The ACC has no undefeated teams left. Middle Tennessee is the only Sun Belt team with a winning record at 3-1. The rest of the conference is 8-21. Clearly the Sun Belt and the MAC are the early season whipping boys of the BCS schools.

High Team Score: Baylor at 68 points over Northwestern State wins this week. Honorable mention to Texas with a 64-7 win over UTEP. In all the Big XII outscored opponents 473-140 this week and went 9-1 on the week. Thanks Texas Tech!

Upset picks: We hit the South Carolina and Stanford wins last week and both Texas Tech and Clemson came achingly close to making me 4-0 in upsets. This week I like Indiana over Ohio State, Georgia over LSU, Cal over USC and Miami over Oklahoma.

Locks: Ok, so Texas Tech – Houston didn’t go over, not even close. Kansas didn’t cover and Miami lost outright. Another good week.
This week take the Toledo v. Ball State over, Syracuse to cover at home against South Florida, Michigan State to cover, maybe beat Michigan.

9/24/09

Live Wire Top 25 - How the mighty fell

Another stellar week for the LW Top 25 as two more Top 10 teams fell and two teams on the cusp, Baylor and West Virginia both lost. The Trojans were anemic and it was a bad week in Mormon land as Utah and BYU both lost, but at least they didn’t complete the tri-fecta, because Utah State didn’t play. And a quick note on last season’s Cinderella, Ball State, is a bottom 10 team this year (see below).

It’s really hard to even pick a No.1 team this week as the top two teams each won by just 10 points over teams they should dominate, the No.3 team ran over another nobody and Cal has yet to be tested. I’m tempted to put Alabama No. 1 as they are the only Top Five team to play a ranked team. This is further proof that polls and rankings should not even be done until at least a month into the season. Given that, here is this week’s Live Wire Top 25.

1. Florida – Like I said week one Florida will remain No. 1 until I see a reason to drop them. They came close to a reason this week with a sloppy win over the trash-talking Vols. Superman fumbled in the red zone, threw an interception and only threw for 115 yards. But Florida is efficient and their defensive is fantastic. There likely won't be any reason to bump them after this week against Kentucky either. *Florida now owns the nations longest win streak.

2. Texas – The Longhorns seems bored at times Saturday night in the prime time game against Texas Tech. But they got their revenge from last year with a 34-24 win. Texas has had a tendency to be bored, especially in the first half of games this season as they barely led Wyoming 13-10 at halftime in week two and held just a 10-3 edge at half in the Texas Tech game. No big deal against upcoming UTEP and Colorado, but don't do it against Oklahoma.

3. Alabama – Alabama continues to take care of business, even if it is against North Texas. A 53-7 win nearly put them as the high scoring team of the week. The only team in the top five to play a ranked opponent is making a case for No. 1. Arkansas comes knocking this week with an offense averaging 44.5 points per game. Let's see how Saban handles the pigs.

4. Cal – Heading east for an early game is never easy for a west coast team. However it appeared Cal would handle the task against Minnesota with no problem. The Bears jumped out to a 14-0 first quarter lead and the route was on, or so it appeared. The Gophers however pulled the game close heading to halftime down just 21-14 and even tied the game in the third quarter. The fourth quarter however wound up a mirror image of the first as Jahvid Best ran for two more touchdowns, giving him all five Cal scores as the Bears pulled away. Their Pac-10 mission begins this week with Oregon.

5. Mississippi – Thumping Southeast Louisiana may boost your confidence but it does little to prepare you for the SEC. Their first test comes Thursday at South Carolina. We'll know if Ole Miss is a contender after that game. Outscoring oppnents 48-10 thus far is a good start.

6. Penn State – It's easy to be good against Akron, Syracuse and Temple. Next comes a revenge game against Iowa. A game that last year arguable cost the Nittany Lions a shot at the title, not like they deserved a shot. The Big 10 is weak and I will think that way until they start finding room in their schedules for someone besides, well, see above.

7. Boise – Pulled away in a shoot out on the road at Fresno State. It was a very entertaining game to watch as Fresno just wouldn't go away. Boise looks well on their way to a second straight undefeated regular season.

8. USC - Very tough loss for the Trojans. But this is the type of game they lose every year. A Pac-10 game that they really shouldn't lose and for the second straight year it comes after a hard-fought win over Ohio State. Without their starting quarterback, the Trojans fumbled four times, threw one interception and gained only 164 yards after the first quarter. Thank goodness for upcoming Washington State.

9. Ohio State – I'll admit the Buckeyes dismantling of what I thought was a good Toledo team was impressive. They held the Rockets to 210 total yards and just 13 yards rushing and shutout an offense that came in averaging 40+ points per game. Buckeye quarterback Terrelle Pryor single handedly crushed Toledo's defense with 372 total yards and four touchdowns. Ohio State has an easy next six weeks ahead, including five important Big 10 games.

10. TCU – TCU pulled away late against Texas State scoring the last three touchdowns (five of the last six) in what ended up a 56-21 blowout. The Horned Frogs spread the offensive wealth as six different players scored. TCU has only allowed 87 yards rushing in two games. Big non-conference test against Clemson this week.

11. Oklahoma State – A closer game than the Cowboys likely wanted against Rice, but they won like they were supposed to. A week four game against I-AA Grambling State this week is a scheduling disappointment for a big time Big XII school, and will teach us nothing about this team.

12. Oklahoma – Oklahoma's win over Tulsa, while expected was impressive also. Again another non-BCS school with a highly touted offense is shut out but a big boy. No doubt Oklahoma's defense is very good. Two straight shut-outs and only 14 points given up in a loss to BYU lends to under five points per game. The Sooners get a well timed off week which may allow Sam Bradford to get back for the Miami game Oct. 3, a must win for both team's title chances.

13. Virginia Tech – Lucky punks. Their offensive obviously isn't any good and by all account I was right about Tyrod Taylor being average at best. Virginia Tech got a third of their offense on the last drive and was dominated. That said, they pulled the miracle in the final minute. Good teams do that and this is how the Hokies win games like this. Good luck against Miami this week.

14. LSU – Its still hard to be in love with LSU. The offense is averaging just over 28 points per game against Washington, Vanderbilt and Louisiana - Lafayette. The defense is the jewel of the program holding their last two opponents to 12 total points. Back to back losses may be inevitable in upcoming games against Georgia and Florida.

15. Cincinnati  – The Bearcats went a long way to play Oregon State in Corvallis, and came out with a 10-point win and an ever growing case for national respect. A high-scoring affair with Fresno State looms this week before Big East play resumes.

16. Miami – One of the most impressive uprisings of a team thus far in the year. Jacory Harris is playing like he's on a mission and if the Hurricanes can get by Virginia Tech (which I think they will) and Oklahoma (which I don't think they will) the U has a claim to the title. However the season is a long grind and these aren't the only teams Miami has to worry about.

17. Houston – A week off before another Big XII shootout with Texas Tech. Do not miss this game and do not blink!

18. BYU – An absolute thrashing of the Cougars by a Florida State who may or may not be Top 25 material. Five turnovers and red zone defense inefficiency led to their demise. Still a good team, but no longer a title contender.

19. Nebraska – Another on the road Top 20 heartbreaker for the Huskers. Nebraska had control over Virginia Tech the whole game but could not finish. Are you really going to beat a Top 20 team without scoring a touchdown. I could give a dozen reasons why Nebraska should have won the game, and a dozen reason why they lost. Regardless, its still a loss. However I can't drop them below Kansas because I absolutely think Nebraska is the better team, as they were Saturday.

20. Kansas – We beat Duke, yippie. Kansas didn't exactly challenge itself in the "preseason" with Northern Colorado, UTEP and Duke, a fact that may hurt them later. But they also have the advantage of easing into the Big XII season with Iowa State and Colorado after another no-brainer this week against Southern Miss. We won't really know what the Jayhawks are made of until late October against Oklahoma.

21. Georgia Tech – Miami figured out Georgia Tech's triple option and made them look silly. The Jackets got behind against Miami and this type of offense can't often come from behind. I do think, however that G-Tech will beat North Carolina this week. One of these two teams is just pretending to be a Top 25 team. We'll find out who Saturday.

22. Michigan – The Wolverine Express kept on a rollin against Eastern Michigan Saturday. Rich Rodriguez may have found his muse in Tate Forcier, even though the freshman struggled last week. The running game is good and Michigan's lack of schedule strength will propel them to undefeated heading into October 24 and a date with Penn State.

23. North Carolina – North Carolina isn't this good. Lets be honest, by the end of the season, they likely won't be ranked. That being said, they took care of East Carolina and if they escape Georgia Tech, they will be 6-0 heading to back-to-backs against Florida State and Virginia Tech.

24. Georgia – Who would have thought Georgia would have to win an SEC shootout with Arkansas and account for the highest scoring game of the season to date with a 52-41 victory. This is not the early 2000's Georgia team winning with defense. Georgia has put up 93 points the last two games, but has allowed 78. This doesn't bode well when Georgia will get into a defensive struggle late in the season.

25. Utah – Utah probably should not be ranked, losing to Oregon and ending the nations longest win streak. I debated about putting Florida State here. Utah is in danger of losing at Colorado State in two weeks. However if they get by the Rams, it should be smooth sailing for the Utes until a Nov. 14 date at TCU.

Teams on the Cusp: Florida State, Auburn, Missouri, Notre Dame, UCLA.

Biggest Disappointments:
Here comes the Ball State bashing. After going 12-0 in the regular season last year, Ball State opens 2009 0-3 with losses to North Texas, New Hampshire and Army. The offense is gone, scoring just 11 points per game against some lower tier competition.
Purdue - Don't even claim that you're good and then lose to Northern Illinois.
Baylor - The up-and-coming Bears up and lost to UConn at home. Good thing they have Northwestern State and Kent State next.
BYU - The point was made above, but really, losing at home to Florida State by 26. Sheesh...

Random Thought: Homer warning!
You don't think these polls are ridiculous, check this week out. The AP Poll has Washington ranked above Nebraska. So what, Washington beat a washed out USC team that was likely overrated to begin with and now they get all this love. Their next loss is right around the corner. Both polls have Kansas above Nebraska and the USA Today poll has Missouri above Nebraska. Does anyone really think that Kansas, Washington and Missouri could beat the Huskers ... really? Nebraska could likely beat LSU, Ohio State, BYU, and Georgia who are all ranked above them, and give us Virginia Tech in a seven game, we win the series in six. But football is one game and one game only. Bring it every week.

High Team Score: South Florida won this week with 59 against Charleston Southern, who has allowed a gaudy163 points in three games. Poor guys. My pick Ole Miss came close with 52.
This week I'll take Oklahoma State as a team and Houston v. Texas Tech as a game.

Upset picks: Toledo and Tulsa did nothing last week in my upset alert, but I called Utah losing to Oregon Syracuse beating Northwestern, and Nebraska at least covered.
This week look at Texas Tech beating Houston, South Carolina may take down untested Ole Miss, Clemson over TCU and Stanford over Washington.

Locks: Kansas and Iowa came through, Florida and Baylor did not.
This week take the Texas Tech v. Houston over, even if it's 100. Take Kansas again at home, Auburn over Ball State, Miami over Virginia Tech even in Blacksburg.

9/17/09

Live Wire Top 25 - Week 2 "Humble Pie"

It seems a big slice of humble pie is in order as it was not a good week for Live Wire Top 10 teams or Teams on the Cusp. It just goes to show all the research and intuition in the world is no substitute for lining the teams up and letting them play. Kudos to teams like Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech and Ohio State for taking on upper tier competition to make week one and two exciting for the fans while teams like Florida, Texas, Penn St. and Cal practiced their way to 2-0 thus far. The only problem with aggressive scheduling is that the former teams now have a loss detrimental to any national championship hopes and the ladder teams are still perfect. Will this development lead to a regress of scheduling?


So here is the Live Wire Top 25 for this week. I punish teams for winning ugly, so LSU, Utah and North Carolina all fall while Oregon State and Northwestern fall out.

1. Florida – In a week two walk-through against Troy, Tebow broke out with four touchdown passes and one rushing as the Gators racked up 663 total yards. The first two games were a mere warm-up for Florida as they look to shut Lane Kiffin’s mouth this week against Tennessee. Urban Myer isn’t expected to call off the dogs in what could be another 50+ point blowout.

2. Texas – The Longhorns apparently didn’t take Wyoming seriously in the first half, taking just a three-point lead into halftime. But then Mack Brown reminded McCoy and the boys that they were playing WYOMING and Texas outscored them 28-0 in the second half to win going away. Texas should have no problem this week in a revenge game against a depleted Texas Tech team.

3. Alabama – I’m not convinced that Alabama is this good. A 40-14 win over Florida International where they led by just six at halftime. It certainly wasn’t a look-ahead game as they have North Texas coming in next week. This team may lack focus against lesser foes. Another average performance in that game will drop Alabama below the two Pac-10 big dogs next week.

4. USC – I have to admit that I didn’t think USC would pull this game off. The Ohio State defense dominated the Trojans in the second half and Matt Barkley appeared to be getting happy feet the last few possessions of the fourth quarter. But The Trojans did what the Trojans do. They found a way to win, and credit their defense for keeping them in the game. Barkley is now questionable for the Washington game Saturday. Any one of us could play QB for the Trojans Saturday and win. Let the kid rest and let Aaron Corp earn his scholarship.

5. Cal – Two opening domination wins. Next up a road test at against an average Big 10 team, should be no problem. Jahvid Best is just that, the best back in the country, averaging 140.5 yards per game rushing, and it won’t likely drop this week. Wins at Minnesota and at Oregon will set up the game of the year in the Pac 10, Oct. 3 against USC, the loser likely out of the national championship hunt.

6. Ole Miss – A bye week this early in the season may hurt Mississippi during the thick SEC part of their schedule. The Rebels have three more easy wins before their elimination game hosting Alabama Oct. 10.

7. BYU – Heisman candidate Max Hall led the Cougars to an annihilation of Tulane. Next they host a Florida State team that has to travel a long way at night to take a beating. Florida State will keep it close early. BYU will likely be 7-0 going into the TCU game.

8. Boise – It’s a real shame that Boise’s only other test this year comes this week at Fresno State. It’s the lack of respectable opponents that will keep them out of the BCS. But hey, would you want to play Boise. They do have the best winning percentage of any team in the country the last five years.

9. Penn St. – Every year I debate about my true feelings about Big 10 “powers.” Penn State is another pretender that is a middle of the pack SEC team. The country is in love with them at No. 5, I’m not. Unimpressive wins over Akron and Syracuse make me question their lack of offense. Let’s fast forward to the Michigan and Ohio State games already …

10. TCU – In their opening game of the year, the Horned Frog defense absolutely dominated a bad Virginia team. Virginia had just 100 yards of total offense until less than five minutes to go in the game. They scored two garbage touchdown late, but only had one drive of more than nine yards and four drives of negative yardage until then. TCU had more sacks (8) than Virginia had first downs (7). That said, where was the Frog offense?

11. Ohio St. – I thought, with five minuets left in the USC game this was finally the year Ohio State would win a marquee game. Again it didn’t happen. The Buckeyes find ways to lose big games. The way the Buckeyes lost mirrored the Oakland Raiders Monday night loss a bit. Dominate defensively and have little offense. That also means Terrelle Pryor is the Jamarcus Russell of college football, great talent, awesome potential, poor execution. And despite all that I moved them up in the ranking. Go figure.

12. Georgia Tech – G-Tech showed their mettle in a tough conference rivalry game with Clemson, though they should have never let the Tigers back in the game. Perhaps Clemson is better than we think. For the Jackets’ sake I hope so. Two huge games against ranked opponents loom.

13. Oklahoma State – It doesn’t appear the Cowboys were ready for Houston, though there is no reason or excuse for that. Houston has been offensive napalm for a couple seasons now. Still, to put it in hockey terms, if the two played a seven-game series, I believe Oklahoma State wins in seven, and therefore stay ranked above Houston. And right now they are better than Oklahoma. That may change by year end.

14. Virginia Tech – A so what game against Marshall may boost Virginia Tech’s confidence, but I still think that if they would have beaten Alabama, the upcoming game against Nebraska would mean more. If for no other reason, I believe they let down against Nebraska and focus on winning the ACC, which begins for them the following week vs. Miami.

15. Utah – A thin 10-point win over San Jose State, a team USC beat by 53, shows Utah isn’t quite ready for the big stage this year. This was a much better team last season. A loss is in the near future for the nation’s longest winning streak.

16. Oklahoma – Their loss is in the rear view and the focus is on the future. So you beat Idaho State by 64. My 11 readers could do that. How will the Sooners handle the next five games that include three ranked teams (Miami, Texas and Kansas) and Tulsa and Baylor, which will be bigger tests than Boomer had hoped. Get through that and Nebraska and Oklahoma State await.

17. LSU – Not impressed. 31-23 over Washington, 23-9 over Vandy? Enjoy your wins over La.-Lafayette and Mississippi State, because then Mardi Gras ends.

18. Cincinnati – Lethal offense averaging 58+ per game. Kudos for upcoming tests against Oregon State and Fresno State, but after that, who’s going to beat them. (Of course I said that about Notre Dame.)

19. Nebraska – The Huskers did what they were supposed to do in games one and two. The biggest disappointment has been a defense, especially the line, which was supposed to be dominant. They will need to be much better at Blacksburg (understatement). The first big road game for Zac Lee is a huge test. Observation reports say Lee looks down his receivers too much, which is fine against lesser competition, but not the Hokies. They x-factor here is that I think this game means more to Nebraska than it does Virginia Tech.

20. Houston – Anyone that received my complete I-A ranking saw that I had Houston ranked No. 28. I said the Oklahoma State game may be their only loss. It wasn’t. They played fearless and played to win. I know I said last week that the Ok. St. game may be the highest scoring game of the year. Well the Cougars play Texas Tech Sept. 26. If the line is 100, take the over. This is the last test this year for Houston.

21. Kansas – Don’t let the mere 34-points fool you. Kansas thoroughly dominated UTEP and had nearly 600 yards of offense. Jake Sharp had a huge game with three touchdowns. More domination looms for the Jayhawks in the next month as they play four teams in the bottom 25 of the country.

22. Michigan – Who would have thought Michigan would be here after last season’s 3-9 debacle. But with losses to Toledo and Appalachian State in the rear view, Michigan is poised to run at the Big 10 title. Michigan being good again, is good for college football. It lends a bit of credibility to the Big 10 as it is now a three-team race.

23. Notre Dame – I was wrong. Ok. W-R-O-N-G. The Domers are not ready for the spotlight and the off-season hype and pressure has gotten to them. Jimmy Claussen is the real deal, but I no longer think Charlie Weis is. He blew that game. Beat Michigan State this week fine, but don’t assume Boston College, Pitt and especially USC are wins.

24. North Carolina – A 12-10 win over UConn nearly pushed them out of my Top 25. It was an uninspired football game by a team that isn’t quite mentally ready to be good. Down 10-0 heading to the 4th quarter, the Tar Heels rallied and closed the game with a safety, not something often seen. Any team with a decent offense will give them trouble, say Georgia Tech on Sept. 26.

25. Miami – A much needed week off heading into a stretch against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma (see above) in consecutive weeks. The Hurricanes won’t escape this unscathed.

Out this week:
Northwestern, Oregon State. Both had poor wins and don’t deserve the ranking at this point.

Teams on the cusp:
Missouri, Georgia, Baylor, West Virginia, Auburn
I would put Texas Tech on this list, but they have to play at Texas this week, which will end their hopes of being ranked for a couple weeks.

Biggest Disappointments:
Tennessee – You can’t talk all that smack about Florida and then forget you have to play UCLA. The Bruins aren’t good and you can’t lose that game.
Michigan State – Another team that forgot they had to play the little guy before the Notre Dame game, losing to Central Michigan at home.
Most of the Big 12 – Colorado loses to Toledo, Kansas State loses to La.- Lafayette, Iowa State gets hammered by Iowa, Oklahoma State loses to Houston, Missouri damn near loses to Bowling Green and Texas struggles with Wyoming for 30 minutes. Colorado and Kansas State may be two of the worst 10 teams in the nation.

Random Thought: I know we are only two weeks into this thing, but there is a huge potential problem brewing here. Its entirely possible that Florida, Texas, Boise State, Cincinnati, Houston, and either USC or Cal, Penn State or Michigan, and whoever comes out of the BYU, TCU and Utah round robin, will all be undefeated this year. Then what will the BCS have to say. Obviously given that scenario Florida and Texas get in, but what a hailstorm the Pac 10 and Big 10 will raise let alone the other smaller conferences. How many times does Boise have to go undefeated before they are given a shot. The Broncos only have six regular season losses since 2003 and three undefeated seasons, 2004, 2006, 2008.

High team score: Cincinnati racked up 70 on Southeast Missouri State, 49 in the first half. Even morre impressive is Stephen F. Austin’s 92-0 win over Texas College, where two Lumberjack QBs combines for eight touchdown passes. Enter your pick for this week below. I'll take Ole Miss.

Upset picks: Last week I gave you the Toledo win over Colorado and Fresno barely lost to Wisconsin, but covered. Buffalo over Pitt … oops.
This week watch out for Toledo again. I’m not saying they’ll be Ohio State, but they will cover. Oklahoma, Utah and Virginia Tech are all on alert. Syracuse over Northwestern.

Locks: Missed all three. All three dogs covered, which is why you don’t pick against home dogs. Hit the Oklahoma State v. Houston over.
This week, Florida big over Tennessee, Kansas over Duke, Baylor over UConn, Iowa over Arizona.

9/10/09

You've been Ranked!

I do not like preseason polls, especially for college football. Most preseason polls are based largely on the team's performance last year and their expected relevance in the coming year.
My goal is to create a poll without pretense. Granted we have only gotten through one game of the season, but you learn a lot about where a team is and where they are going in the near future. I also want to take into account where I assume a team will finish by the end of the season. Given all that, my poll will look a little different than all the others.
First, though a little game I like to play. Which Division I-A team that will score the highest point total this week? Enter your pick in the comment box below.
For the record, last week's winner, Air Force, with 72 points. And they did it without a 100-yard rusher, though they had 474 yards on the ground, and just 102 yards passing.

To the poll

1. Florida* - Consensus #1. No argument here. After a Saturday walk-through where Tim Tebow didn't even play en entire half of football, I won't drop them until I see a reason.

2. Texas* -  Another team with a scrimmage Saturday where they could have hung a hundred. Class of the Big 12. With Oklahoma's issues, their only test may come against Oklahoma State.

3. Alabama – Vaunted defense only allowed 155 yards of offense to Virginia Tech. They avoid Florida during the season, but if they get by Ole Miss and LSU, they’ll play the Gators in the SEC Championship. It’s doubtful they’ll escape all three.

4. Oklahoma State* – Solid win over Georgia and an honest assessment of this teams talent puts them where we thought Oklahoma was. If they can get past Texas at home, you’ll see them in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 7.

5. Cal* - Thrashed Maryland in the opener. Lots of returners, one of the best running backs. If they can beat USC, they have the inside track to the Pac-10 BCS berth and perhaps the title. And I think they are better than USC this year.

6. Notre Dame* – The real deal this year. A shutout over Nevada is a good start. Win through the USC game and we may be talking national title contention.

7. USC – Great team but I have to slip them back due to the freshman quarterback. Who knows how he’ll play at Ohio State, but they will lose one of the two back-to-back games at Cal or at Notre Dame. If they survive those, they have a revenge game against Oregon State looming.

8. Mississippi – No problem with Memphis. The rebels are comin’ and they have something to prove. They have to prove they can beat Alabama, Tennessee and Florida. They do that, they’re in the title. They won’t, but it will still be a good season.

9. BYU* – True, they beat a watered down Oklahoma team, but BYU schedule is actually strong enough to make a BCS argument. If they tally wins over Florida State, TCU and Utah, how can you leave them out.

10. Boise State – Impressive domination of Oregon. May be good enough to contend for national title, but schedule will not allow for it.

11. Penn State – The default Big 10 BCS rep if they beat Ohio State. It will be a shame if they play for the title, though because they just aren’t good enough for that.

12. Georgia Tech – Despite five fumbles and mistakes galore, the Jacket beat Jacksonville State by 20. Tech likely to win what looks to be a soft ACC.

13. Utah – Didn’t destroy Utah State, but the country’s longest winning streak can’t be ignored. They aren’t likely to be tested until a November 13 game at TCU.

14. Ohio State – These guys aren’t that good based on Ohio State standards. I’m not sold on Terrelle Pryor. USC is going to win by 20 again.

15. North Carolina – Butch Davis has this team together with an opening win. Schedule sets up well to contend for the ACC title.

16. LSU – Tough win over improved and inspired Washington. Good tune up games before the SEC starts.

17. Virginia Tech – I don’t think they were ready to play Alabama last week. Marshall will be no issue but the Nebraska team coming in on the Sept. 18 has revenge on their minds for a game the Huskers feel they should have won. Miami, BC, Georgia Tech and North Carolina in a five week stretch won’t be easy.

18. Oklahoma – The Sooners are going to fight Sam Bradford’s injury all year, no matter when he actually comes back. They will lose to Texas and likely Oklahoma State, maybe Nebraska.

19. TCU – Easy schedule outside of BYU and Utah. They will likely lose one of those two games, no more.

20. Nebraska – A pedestrian win over FAU doesn’t tell us much about Nebraska. The chances of them beating Virginia Tech and Oklahoma went up but the Missouri game looks more difficult. Two to three losses still look certain.

21. Kansas – Impressive win over Northern Colorado without star receiver Dezmon Briscoe. Soft non-conference yet they will lose at least two of their four big games against Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas and Missouri.

22. Oregon State – A much better team than their in-state counterpart, with an easier schedule. Two or three losses is all I see.

23. Cincinnati – Ran over favored Rutgers. Questions on defense, returning just one guy. Still, they should win the Big East.

24. Northwestern – Towson, Eastern Michigan, Syracuse to open the season is great. The Cats will likely be ranked heading into their Oct. 30 Meeting with Penn St.

25. Miami (FL) – Fought hard to beat Florida State on the road. Open the season with four ranked opponents. If they can find a way to come out of that 3-1 They may be on their way to a big year.

* Means I believe this team to be a national champion contender.

Notable missing teams:
Georgia - I think when it all shakes out, Georgia will lose three more games and finish the season unranked.
Missouri - Missouri could play their way into my top 25 but I'm not anointing Blaine Gabbert quite yet.

Teams on the cusp: 
Michigan State, Pitt, Texas Tech, Tennessee, West Virginia, Baylor.

Random Thought:
How does Florida State continue to be ranked at the start of every season. They haven't been good or relevant in a long time.

Upset picks of the week:
Fresno State over Wisconsin; Toledo over Colorado; Buffalo over Pitt

Locks:
USC big over Ohio State; Texas and TCU to cover whatever spread; Oklahoma State v. Houston over.

For the entire Division 1-A rankings of all 120 teams, E-mail at brian.brashaw@yahoo.com.

Please comment below.